Africa’s 2050 Population Boom – Newsweek

Two years after surpassing a population of 8 billion in 2022, the number of people on this planet has grown much faster in some countries than others.

As part of the United States government’s World Factbook, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) publishes up-to-date figures on population growth rates for 236 countries and territories around the world. Of these, 24 of the top 25 fastest-growing countries are located in Africa.

By far the fastest-growing population is seen in South Sudan, growing by 4.65 percent every year. By contrast, the United States is growing by 0.67 percent a year. But what is driving this population boom, and how will it affect the populations within the countries most affected?

Newsweek spoke to demographer and social statistician, Melanie Channon, to find out.

Larim woman with her babies, January 2023, South Sudan. South Sudan has the highest birthrate in Africa.
Larim woman with her babies, January 2023, South Sudan. South Sudan has the highest birthrate in Africa.
Hector Ruiz Golobart/Getty Images

“The region will account for about 60 percent of global population increase between now and 2050,” Channon, a reader in the Department of Social and Policy Sciences at the University of Bath in the U.K., told Newsweek. “Across the continent, the average number of children per woman remains over four, but there is a lot of variety within that. The fertility rate by country varies from less than two in Tunisia and Mauritius to well over six in countries including Niger and Somalia.

She continued: “In many of these countries, women choose to have a relatively large number of children and even more educated women tend to want more children than their counterparts in other regions of the world.”

The map below shows which countries in Africa have the highest population growth rates:

Aside from cultural preferences, another key factor contributing to Africa’s expanding population is the average age across the continent compared to other parts of the world—a population structure that could provide opportunities in the years to come. “The continent is extremely young with more than 2 in 5 people aged under 15,” Channon said. “This large number of young people will turn into a large number of working-age people relative to both the young and old, which can drive economic growth and prosperity.

“This phenomenon is known as the demographic dividend and if African countries can harness it then this will foster the growth needed to counter any negative impacts of population growth.”

Of course, the dramatic population growth in these regions can also place immense pressure on societies, especially those already vulnerable. “Population growth can create a wide variety of issues in specific regions, especially when combined with issues like climate change and conflict,” Channon said.

“Almost half the world’s internally displaced persons are in Africa. Conflict and violence accounted for 13.5 million displacements last year, while disasters such as flooding and drought caused 6 million displacements. Disasters are only likely to increase with climate change and with them, we will see increasing numbers of internal displacements as well as larger numbers of migrants.”

Looking to the future, Channon said that, like most other parts of the world, fertility rates will fall in the vast majority of sub-Saharan African countries, although she added that birth rates may remain higher than in other regions.

“On average people in this region want more children than in other regions, so even with improved access to a range of contraceptives (which is still enormously important) and increased quality education I think average fertility will remain higher than elsewhere for a long time,” she said. “However, I would not like to predict much beyond this as I do not have a crystal ball and predictions generally turn out to be wrong.”

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