India overtakes Japan to become third-most powerful country in Asia

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India has officially overtaken Japan to claim the position of the third most powerful country in Asia, according to the 2024 Asia Power Index by the Lowy Institute. The milestone comes on the back of India’s robust economic growth and young population and reflects its growing stature on the global stage and international diplomacy.

The Asia Power Index, launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018, measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The project maps out the existing distribution of power as it stands today, and tracks shifts in the balance of power over time. The Index ranks 27 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to shape their external environment.

India’s rise in the Asia Power Index is reflective of its accomplishments in military capability and defence networks, economic capability and relationships, diplomatic and cultural influence and resilience and future resources. It is now only behind the United States and China in terms of power in Asia.

How India performed in the power index?

It marks the first time that India has overtaken Japan to become the third-most powerful country in Asia, with an overall score of 39.1 out of 100. India managed to increase its overall power score in 2018 and performed best in the future resources measure, only behind the US and China in that regard. India is also ranked 4th in Asia in terms of military and economic capability. 

However, there is always room for improvement. India’s lowest-ranked measure is economic relationships, a result of the country sitting outside the regional economic integration agenda, according to the Asia Power Index. India’s score for Defence Networks also declined, and this is the third year in a row that it has lost a ranking.

Additionally, India exerts less influence in the region than expected given its available resources, as indicated by the country’s negative power gap score. Its negative power gap in 2024 was the largest since the inception of the Asia Power Index. It suggested that India has plenty of latent potential to increase its influence in Asia, especially outside its own Indian Ocean neighbourhood.

What are the key factors behind India’s rise?

• India’s growth is led by its huge population, land mass and robust economic growth. India has become one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as consistent technological and manufacturing improvements pushed it to the fifth-largest economy in the globe. The country’s young population and dynamic workforce have positioned India as a hub for innovation and investment.
• Japan’s decline in the global economic standings follows the government’s confirmation that it slipped behind Germany in 2023. The primary reasons behind this are Japan’s slow population growth, limited military expansion and slow economic performance. India is likely to surpass Japan as the fourth-largest economy by 2025, according to many estimates.
• India has tirelessly worked to modernise its military to elevate its strategic presence in the neighbourhood and combat threats with the inclusion of advanced missile systems, nuclear capabilities and an expanding naval fleet. It is also becoming a provider of security – which was evident when India supplied BrahMos missiles to the Philippines.
• India’s diplomatic presence has also improved significantly in 2024, with particular praise directed towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s global leadership and strategic ambition.  India increased its
• tempo of diplomatic activity in 2023, participating in the sixth-highest number of dialogues with Asia Power Index countries. It has played a crucial role in multilateral forums like the UN, G20, BRICS and Quad.
• India has also made strides in space exploration – with the success of Chandrayaan 3 – as well as renewable energy and information technology. The vast Indian diaspora across the world has also contributed to its rising soft power. India’s rising stature in the index reflects its potential to emerge as a global superpower in the coming decades.

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