Bonds Extend Selloff, Asian Shares Set to Decline: Markets Wrap

By Pune Media On Oct 22, 2024 18

(Bloomberg) — Most Asian shares were set for declines as Wall Street stocks took a breather after notching their longest weekly rally this year. Bonds tumbled on cooling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

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Sydney stocks fell, while futures for benchmarks in Hong Kong and Shanghai pointed to losses. That’s after equities in the US dropped from nearly overbought levels, following a relentless advance to all-time highs. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% with all of its major groups but technology pushing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.8%.

US 10-year yields jumped 11 basis points to 4.20%. They will test the 5% threshold in the next six months amid rising inflation expectations and concerns over fiscal spending, said T. Rowe Price’s Arif Husain. Australian and New Zealand bonds fell in early trading.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid, in his first public remarks since August, said he favors a slower pace of interest-rate reductions given uncertainty about how low the US central bank should ultimately cut rates. Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management said he sees higher chances the Fed will leave rates unchanged in November as the economy powers ahead.

In another sign of how greed has trumped fear, the S&P 500 hasn’t suffered back-to-back losses in about 30 sessions. While a month with no consecutive down days may not sound like much, the current streak ranks among the very best since 1928, according to data compiled by SentimenTrader.

“The index remains overbought across multiple time frames and is still vulnerable to profit-taking over the short run,” said Dan Wantrobski, director of research at Janney Montgomery Scott.

In Asia, focus remains on Beijing’s efforts to boost growth in its struggling economy via stimulus. In the latest move, Chinese banks cut their benchmark lending rates after easing by the central bank at the end of September, part of a series of measures aimed at halting a housing market slump.

Japanese traders are keeping one eye on the runup to this coming weekend’s election. Support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition is continuing to soften, indicating the possibility that the vote may result in a weakened and unstable administration.

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Wall Street faces a big earnings hurdle this week, with roughly 20% of the S&P 500 companies scheduled to report, with traders gearing up for key results from Tesla Inc. to Boeing Co. and United Parcel Service Inc.

The latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey shows respondents see Corporate America’s results as more crucial for the equity market’s performance than who wins the November election or even the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

Nvidia Corp. hit a record high, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.2%. The Russell 2000 retreated 1.6%. Homebuilders tumbled. United Parcel Service Inc. sank on a sell recommendation at Barclays Plc. Boeing Co. rallied after a tentative agreement with its workers’ union.

Protection

Volatility is elevated for options on stocks, bonds and currencies alike as investors pay up for protection. The risks are clear: a hotly contested US election, interest-rate decisions in the US and Europe, the threat of a wider Middle East conflict and quarterly earnings. In the stock market, implied volatility is outpacing actual swings, and puts protecting against a selloff are favored over bullish calls.

To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, no matter the reason, “we certainly cannot blame investors for buying some protection in the options market and/or gold.”

“With the stock market as expensive as it is (especially on a price/sales basis), it is much more vulnerable than usual when these kinds of political and geopolitical issues became significant concerns in the past,” he said.

This week in the US, Tesla will likely face questions during its earnings call on production targets and regulatory challenges after the unveiling of its much-hyped Cybercab failed to enthuse investors and quell concerns over its recent vehicle sales. Boeing will also have to mollify investors increasingly concerned over production delays, labor strife and depleted financial resources.

Although the market has shown incredible resilience this year, with nine out of 10 positive months, we’re beginning to see parallels with the 2001–2006 period where tech valuations were high, according to Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

“Unlike the dot-com bubble, today’s leading tech firms have solid fundamentals, but the market is far from ‘normal’,” he noted. “High expectations are warning signs for potential instability in the next few years. Investors should prepare for moderating returns and volatility, especially as cracks begin to appear beyond 2024.”

Corporate Highlights:

SAP SE said its cloud revenue grew by 25% in the third quarter, as Europe’s biggest software company pushed customers to transition away from locally-installed legacy systems.
Qualcomm Inc. unveiled a more powerful processor that’s designed to bring laptop-level capabilities to smartphones, helping the devices take advantage of new artificial intelligence tools.
Microsoft Corp. is launching a set of artificial intelligence tools designed to send emails, manage records and take other actions on behalf of business workers, expanding an AI push that intensifies competition with rivals like Salesforce Inc.
Spirit Airlines Inc. soared after the carrier secured more time to address a troublesome debt load that has raised the prospect of bankruptcy.
Kenvue Inc. rallied after activist investor Starboard Value took a stake in the Tylenol maker with an eye toward making changes to boost the company’s stock price.

Key events this week:

ECB’s Christine Lagarde is interviewed by Bloomberg Television, Tuesday
BOE’s Andrew Bailey as well as ECB’s Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann to speak at Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York, Tuesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Tuesday
Canada rate decision, Wednesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
US existing home sales, Wednesday
Boeing, Tesla, Deutsche Bank earnings, Wednesday
Fed’s Beige Book, Wednesday
US new home sales, jobless claims, S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI, Thursday
UPS, Barclays earnings, Thursday
Fed’s Beth Hammack speaks, Thursday
US durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:49 a.m. Tokyo time
Hang Seng futures fell 0.4%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1%
Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.3%

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0816
The Japanese yen was little changed at 150.74 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1371 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $67,567.54
Ether was little changed at $2,672.20

Bonds

Commodities

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.