Bangkok Post – Exports set to exceed 2% growth target

PUBLISHED : 6 Nov 2024 at 04:00

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For the first nine months of 2024, the value of Thai exports increased by 3.9% to $223 billion.

Thai exports this year are projected to exceed the target set by 2%, reaching a 30-year high of 10 trillion baht.

Chaichan Charoensuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said for the first nine months of 2024, the value of the country’s exports increased by 3.9% to US$223 billion, while the value of imports increased by 5.5% to $229 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.96 billion.

Thai exports in the real sector (excluding gold, oil-related products, and arms) increased by 4.2%.

The global manufacturing sector also indicated a recovery in October, with the expansion of the Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reflecting ongoing worldwide economic growth, said Mr Chaichan.

The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 in October, a two-month high, up from 47.3 in September. The reading showed the US manufacturing sector contracted, but there were some signs of the downturn easing.

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 45.9 in October 2024, a five-month high, up from 45.0 in September, which showed some signs of stabilisation.

The PMI for China’s manufacturing industry rose to 50.1 in October, marking a return to expansionary territory from 49.8 in September after five months of contraction. This was aided by the introduction and implementation of incremental pro-growth policies to bolster the economy.

The baht depreciated against the greenback in October, reaching 33-33.8 baht per dollar as the Bank of Thailand cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.25%.

Compared with the beginning of the year, the baht strengthened by 1.95%. In September, the baht strengthened by 5.96%.

The global crude oil price remained stable at $70-80 per barrel with lower freight costs from Asia to the US and Europe.

Regarding the export outlook for 2024, the Ministry of Commerce expects export growth to continue in the final quarter of the year despite several challenges.

These include ongoing geopolitical tensions, the result of the US presidential election, the volatility of the baht, and the announcement from oil-producing nations that they will delay December’s planned increase in oil production by a month or more, which may affect Thailand’s rice export sector.

Mr Chaichan said exports are expected to rise by 2% to a record high of $290 billion (10 trillion baht) this year.

Domestic firms that engage in international trade should use instruments such as forward contracts or foreign exchange swaps to hedge against foreign exchange risk.

The central bank should maintain the stability of the baht and not allow it to fluctuate too rapidly in order to maintain overall economic and financial stability, according to the TNSC.

The Commerce Ministry should expedite trade promotion activities in countries with high market potential and accelerate free trade agreement negotiations to expand market access, boost exports, and enhance Thailand’s competitiveness, the TNSC noted.

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