Music Creators Set To Lose Quarter Of Income Thanks To Generative AI

Man composing a song for acoustic guitar, writing chords in a notebook at home

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Music creators will lose billions because of generative AI, the first-ever global study of the economic impact of AI on the sector shows.

The research, for the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, finds that the market for generative AI music and audiovisual content will rise from €3 billion ($3.2 billion) now to €64 billion ($67 billion) in 2028.

Good news for the tech companies—but not so great for music and audiovisual creators, who are predicted to see their revenues hit by 24% and 21% respectively, with a total loss of €22 billion ($23 billion) over the next five years.

“CISAC commissioned this study from PMP Strategy to show the enormous value that copyright works bring to Gen AI companies,” said CISAC director general Gadi Oron.

“Its conclusions point to a fundamental flaw that is opening up in the market, with creators’ works being unfairly and unethically appropriated to boost the revenues of Gen AI providers, while leaving the creators themselves out of this growth.”

By 2028, the researchers calculated, generative AI music will account for around 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ takings, along with roughly 60% of music libraries’ revenues.

Translators and adaptors for dubbing and subtitling will be hardest-hit, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could see their revenues fall by 15 to 20%.

“AI tools can profoundly support our work as story tellers and film makers. But there is an enormous anxiety that in the rush to exploit and monetise generative AI, creators will be treated like an afterthought, lacking the right to authorize uses of their work, unprotected by transparency rules and unable to receive fair remuneration,” said CISAC vice-president, film director and screenwriter Ángeles González-Sinde Reig.

“We must not forget that it is human creators who provide the fuel of the AI world and who must be at the center of policy making and regulation.”

CISAC says that some countries are handling the situation fairly, highlighting the EU’s AI Act as an important first step, as it requires tech companies to seek permission from rights-holders to use copyrighted materials for AI training.

And, launching the report, CISAC president and former ABBA band member Björn Ulvaeus, said that Australia and New Zealand were leading the world in protecting creators.

“By setting a gold standard in AI policy, one that protects creators’ rights while fostering responsible and innovative technological development, Australia and New Zealand can ensure that AI serves as a tool to enhance human creativity rather than replace it,” he said.

In the US, the US Copyright Office is considering submissions on how the use of creative content for AI training should be regulated.

“There is a critical message here for policy makers: they must act urgently to safeguard human creators, culture and creativity. They must ensure that human creators are protected, can exercise their legal rights and can demand transparency from AI services,” said Oron.

“With these principles enshrined in the AI environment, this can be a win-win for creators and the tech industry rather than a threat to our culture and creative sector.”

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