2025 Predictions in Global Agribusiness: Here’s What Is Driving Decisions in Planting and Crop Protection

Peaks and troughs, where a few years of returns are followed by periods of uncertainty, are common in all sectors, and none more so than agriculture. The annual cyclical nature of the farming calendar can be overlaid with short- and longer-term cycles such as weather, input prices, and crucially, demand.

A recent example of such a demand cycle is the expansion in the aftermath of COVID-19. Global warfare, trade disruptions, inflationary pressures, and currency volatility led to an “artificial” (a backlog of demand created in crisis) surge in demand for food. As a result, commodity prices reached their highest levels in a decade.

The boom in demand and prices led farmers to invest in production. After all, farm incomes were peaking, and demand was not showing any sign of recession back in 2022. Fast forward 24 months, things have changed considerably. Input costs are high, and weather unpredictability has, for example, led the UK to the second-worst harvest on record.

This example demonstrates the potential vulnerabilities of the fundamental, structural change in demand.

Global Demand Drivers Shift

Dr. Nomman Ahmed, Executive Director, Global Practice Advanced Analytics & sigma at Kynetec, explains:

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“In the past, growth mainly was driven by ‘national’ demand drivers,” he said. “More recent cycles suggest a different makeup of demand, one that has been more ‘globally’ driven. In the past 10 to 15 years, the key structural changes in demand were driven by globalization, where emerging markets like China and India drove significantly increasing agricultural imports.”

The rise of biofuel demand, particularly corn for ethanol, also played a role. Government mandates and energy policies have ensured this driver receives enough support. Aimed at improving productivity, alongside other technological advances in genetic engineering as well as hybridization, these demand factors were key in transforming agricultural markets from national to global.

Resultingly more interconnected than ever, demand pressures have grown beyond traditional food markets, creating new, long-term pressures.

Crop Protection Planning Becomes More Dynamic

In crop protection specifically, the rapid value- and volume-driven growth in synthetic chemicals 2022 proved unsustainable. Optimistic expectations, as well as fears of further price surges, led to increased production on the supply side and stockpiling on the demand side.

“Another key shift highlighted by Kynetec is the trend of farmers delaying their crop protection decisions, opting to wait closer to planting before finalizing their choices,” Ahmed notes. “In Brazil, for example, 41% of soybean farmers now make decisions near sowing, up from 16% in 2022, reflecting the global ‘watch and wait’ approach as growers wait for better market signals or more favorable pricing before committing to purchases.”

Decision-making on crop protection in Europe is increasingly occurring closer to the sowing date. In Germany, for example, 92% of corn growers now make their decisions near sowing, compared to 72% in 2022. This shift indicates rising market uncertainty, prompting farmers to adopt a more flexible, wait-and-see approach.

Efficacy Remains Top Priority; Cost Consciousness Rises

One of the most significant global trends is the increasing focus on efficacy and advanced modes of action. For instance, in China, 72% of farmers and 39% of German growers listed efficacy as the main reason for choosing a crop protection product, surpassing price.

Farmers worldwide are prioritizing solutions that offer strong performance against evolving pest and disease pressures, exacerbated by climate change and growing resistance issues. This shift is particularly critical as the range of available tools to combat new and emerging threats continues to shrink.

Ahmed explains how different regions are reacting to demand trends:

Latin America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, continues to lean on genetically modified seeds and biotechnologies to maximize yields, especially for key export crops like soybeans, maize, and cotton.

Despite economic challenges, optimism remains high in the region, driven by expectations of new trade agreements and export opportunities. That said, cost-consciousness is rising, with farmers increasingly considering generics and biological alternatives alongside premium products.

13% of growers are driven by price. This price relevance has increased compared to earlier cycles, with 10% of growers citing price as a main factor in 2022 and 12% in the similarly challenging year of 2015. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, as other factors, such as efficacy, remain more important.

Local production of generics is helping manage costs, while biological products are gaining ground, contributing to a potential price stabilization in 2025.

In North America, farmers face tight margins and economic uncertainty, largely due to declining income expectations, rising input costs, and increased interest rates. Despite these challenges, corn and soybean plantings are expected to remain strong, as U.S. farmers focus on maintaining yields with drought-tolerant and pest-resistant seed varieties.

Investment in crop protection products may decline in volume, with more farmers turning to biological alternatives and integrated pest management (IPM) to cope with rising costs. Kynetec’s data suggests that while prices may improve, balancing the right mix of high-performance products and cost efficiency will be critical.

Like Latin America, U.S. growers are expected to continue making decisions closer to sowing, reflecting the shift in timing across global regions.

In the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, China and India are prioritizing food security through investments in hybrid seeds and genetically modified crops. Government subsidies and price stabilization programs in countries like India are helping farmers navigate rising input costs.

In China, price plays a minimal role in decision-making, as low-cost generics dominate the market. Just 3% of corn farmers in China ranked price as the top factor, while 72% focused on efficacy and mode of action. The region benefits from large-scale production of affordable generics and strong government support, allowing farmers to prioritize performance over cost in their crop protection choices.

When growers were surveyed about their future use of products from the current season, they showed less certainty across all product categories (HIFO) compared to 2022. This suggests a clear shift toward making more informed decisions about what is essential and what can be omitted.

In Europe, regulatory pressures, especially the European Green Deal, are pushing farmers toward adopting more sustainable practices. There is a growing demand for biological products and IPM strategies, with many growers decreasing their reliance on synthetic chemicals.

Despite this regulatory transition, efficacy remains crucial, as evidenced by 39% of German corn farmers identifying it as their top priority when selecting crop protection products. However, with tightening margins, price has become a more significant factor; 12% of farmers cited it as the most important consideration in 2024, up from just 6% in 2022 and 9% when compared to a similarly difficult year 2015.

This trend reflects increasing economic pressures, with farmers striving to balance performance and cost-effectiveness, something that can be expected to also hold true in 2025, concludes Ahmed.

Recent data from Kynetec panels has revealed German corn farmers’ product use intentions, providing valuable insights into their preferences for 2025. Originally designed to assess brand loyalty, the survey suggests that 62% of farmers plan to continue using similar fertilizers, an increase from 54% in 2022, highlighting the essential role these products play in agricultural practices. Moreover, 58% of growers express their intention to use the same biostimulants, indicating a heightened interest in products that promote plant growth and health.

The data also indicates a strong preference for biological products, with 36% of farmers confident they will use the same bioinsecticides in 2025. Additionally, 66% of respondents intend to only “probably” use the same fungicides, while 28% are convinced they will use the same herbicides, up from 18% in 2022.

In the case of insecticides, only 13% of growers have a strong certainty about using similar products next year, a drop from 45% in 2022. This suggests a potential shift toward more sustainable and environmentally friendly solutions. Furthermore, it indicates that farmers are retaining flexibility to experiment with products as the season progresses, a change from a ‘plug and play’ approach.

2025 Success: Deliberate, Technology-Driven Decisions

Global trends point to a more measured, technology-driven approach to farming. Whether through the adoption of advanced seed technologies, sustainable farming practices, or precision agriculture, farmers will be smart about their investments in 2025.

With sustainability in focus, farmers are increasingly turning to precision agriculture, regenerative farming, and biological products. At the same time, Deutsch et al. (2018) note that global yield losses could increase by 10%-25% for every degree of surface warming.

Rising temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns will create conditions conducive to new pest infestations, particularly in temperate regions where much of the world’s grain is produced. A growing pest population with accelerated metabolic rates will further stress both crop and livestock production.

As growers worldwide navigate the challenges of the coming year, their focus will be on balancing cost efficiency with the need to sustain productivity in ever-changing conditions.

You can contact Dr. Ahmed at [email protected].

Kynetec is the global leader in agricultural and animal health data, analytics and insights. Backed by a team of insights specialists, interviewers, data analysts, marketing scientists and data visualization experts, our number one priority is to ensure that we deliver the highest-quality insight and foresight at the right time to enable our clients to confidently make the best decisions for their business. Across the globe, our employees are located across 30 major agriculture and animal health countries. Our coverage extends to major and niche sectors of our industry, where we regularly undertake research projects in more than 80 countries. See all author stories here.

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