Earth Scientists Are Crucial to International Development

East Asian countries experienced a major financial crisis in 1997, after currency devaluation in Thailand set off a chain reaction that temporarily drove international creditors and investors away from the region. Collectively, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea went from receiving $93 billion in net private investments from overseas in 1996, to paying out $12 billion in 1997, a $105 billion swing in capital flows [Radelet et al., 1998]. Mass layoffs, dwindling purchase power, and widespread sociopolitical unrest during this period led to suffering for tens of millions across East Asia.

Lessons from this crisis have since proved enormously consequential. It changed the way economists understand global finance, reshaped the investment and economic strategies of many developing countries, contributed to a wave of anti-globalization protests, and provoked significant changes in global financial organizations, among other effects. But this was not the only crisis that struck East Asia in 1997.

The 1997 El Niño event brought drought, wildfires, and crop failures to the same countries that were suffering through the financial crisis.

At the same time, one of the most intense El Niño events on record was unfolding across the tropical Pacific Ocean. A gargantuan mass of warmth in ocean waters flowed east from the western Pacific, displacing the global center of deep cloud formation away from East Asia. This complex phenomenon brought drought, wildfires, and crop failures to the same countries that were suffering through the financial crisis. Yet major reports by international development agencies that diagnosed ongoing challenges for this region overwhelmingly failed to recognize the importance of the 1997–1998 El Niño event [e.g., Radelet et al., 1998; Fischer, 2004].

A recent analysis suggests that in countries like Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand, the 1997 El Niño caused a roughly 2% loss in per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth within a year of the event (meaning per capita GDP was about 2% lower than it would have been had the El Niño not occurred) [Callahan and Mankin, 2023]. That drop is only about a fifth of the GDP growth lost in these countries during the financial crisis, but the losses caused by the El Niño continued to mount in succeeding years, and by 2003 they amounted, depending on the country, to a 5%–20% reduction in cumulative per capita GDP growth.

The global long-term cost of this climatic event has been estimated at about $5.7 trillion, roughly 50 times the swing in capital flows that fueled the financial crisis in the same year [Callahan and Mankin, 2023]. Although these figures are not directly comparable, the sheer magnitude of the El Niño’s financial cost shows the scale of countries’ risk exposure to Earth system processes.

Why did the prime institutions of international development, in their response to the Asian crisis, not recognize the potential added and lasting harm that a major climate shock could cause in East Asia? These institutions work alongside sovereign states and nongovernmental organizations alike to boost prosperity globally, so why would they not have a clear view of the Earth system’s role in human well-being and development?

Unique among documents of its type, a 1998 World Bank report mentioned the El Niño event as well as the drought, wildfires, and widespread challenges that came with it. It also noted how prior economic development had relied on a “grow now, clean up later” policy [World Bank, 1998]. Despite emphasizing the important role of the environment in human suffering during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the World Bank’s primary intervention measures focused on restructuring financial services, improving corporate governance, trade liberalization, and subsidies.

To be sure, projecting socioeconomic effects of weather and climate events has never been easy, and the downstream, multisectoral effects of climate shocks become clear only in hindsight. But the experience with the 1997 El Niño raises the question of how international development agencies might have enriched their strategies beyond the macroeconomic and financial if they’d had Earth scientists working alongside their lawyers and economists.

Knowledge from Nature

We need climate adaptation that is rooted in a deep understanding of how the Earth system works and that accounts for risks that we can and cannot control.

Current climate adaptation efforts are ambitious politically, financially, and socially. However, we need climate adaptation that is also rooted in a deep understanding of how the Earth system works and that accounts for risks that we can and cannot control. Rather than measures that merely react to past events, we need innovations and leadership that leverage Earth system dynamics to improve human well-being.

International development institutions are nurturing increasingly diverse talent pools. Still, the agencies in charge of preventing and managing international crises recruit experts who focus primarily on human systems, like supply chains, banking, and the law.

Many of these professionals are well aware that climate and environmental change can significantly influence human systems. And a growing number of companies and institutions are developing strategies with climate change in mind, thus espousing interest in incorporating climate information more substantially into their advice and decisionmaking. Yet many organizations are not necessarily adapting their workforces with commensurate expertise. As a result, the majority of climate-related work in some of the world’s most powerful development institutions is done by economists and data analysts rather than by Earth scientists.

Consider the concept of natural capital: In the past decade, development economists have come up with methodologies to make more holistic valuations of countries’ natural resources. These new valuation frameworks help account for untouched natural areas that were not traditionally included in national balance sheets. This new paradigm in accounting has made it financially viable for nations to enact projects to decommodify, preserve, and replenish ecosystems. International agencies support such projects by providing loans and technical assistance to developing countries that may lack sufficient domestic funding and specialization.

Planning regional development without the meaningful involvement of climate and Earth scientists is like crafting international trade deals without macroeconomists in the room.

Geologists, hydrologists, and other technical experts are commonly involved in implementing these projects, which often require risk assessments for new infrastructure. Typically, however, these scientists work as short-term consultants and hold little power to steer development initiatives from an early stage or at a high level. Their involvement is often a matter of compliance rather than strategy. Thus, the responsibility for designing and deploying climate solutions sponsored by development agencies largely falls to people whose specializations lie outside the climate or Earth sciences.

Although these individuals may be experts in policy, finance, or law, for example, and may know how to see projects through to completion, there is no substitute for the knowledge and foresight Earth scientists can bring to the table. Especially as Earth systems continue to change, planning regional development without the meaningful involvement of climate and Earth scientists is like crafting international trade deals without macroeconomists in the room.

Without this involvement, development agencies risk misapplying—or missing out on state-of-the-art—data, analytical methods, and models developed and used by scientists who specialize in understanding the inner workings of Earth’s natural systems. They risk, much as they did during the 1997 East Asian financial crisis, underestimating the ways in which the swings of nature can affect human life. And they risk having inadequate tool kits and investing in shortsighted strategies that become obsolete under future climate scenarios.

How Scientists Can Help

What can climate and Earth scientists do? As development agencies evolve and environmental challenges intensify, the limitations of their current approaches to supporting climate adaptation and mitigation are becoming evident. To adjust course, scientists must play a bigger role in these agencies’ climate-related initiatives and long-term strategies.

Designing and implementing effective climate solutions require input from many perspectives: scientific, regulatory, economic, and cultural. There is no definitive guide on how climate and Earth scientists can adapt their practice to the multidisciplinary realm of international development. But a big step would be for more scientists—an increasing number of whom feel compelled to work outside academia toward the goal of stabilizing Earth systems—to join the ranks of international development agencies and drive change from within.

Pockets of involvement by Earth scientists in the development community are forming, most notably in efforts focused on risk and coastal management as well as on agriculture.

Pockets of such involvement by Earth scientists in the development community are forming, most notably in efforts focused on risk and coastal management as well as on agriculture. The World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, for example, houses a nature-based solution group that leverages and intervenes in local-scale Earth system processes to prevent human exposure to natural hazards. Their work—in places like Bangladesh and Burundi—spans everything from flood prevention to earthquake resilience to food security and is done in collaboration with national and local governments.

Climate and Earth scientists are increasingly being encouraged to strive to shape domestic policy. However, if the front lines of climate change are truly in the developing world, scientists’ efforts may be more fruitful in shaping the institutions that have the most access and influence there.

Getting involved in development efforts is easier said than done. It will help for scientists to acquaint themselves with the challenges of working in countries with suboptimal governance, where, for example, a lack of enforcement often renders even well-designed policies and laws ineffective. To align their work with the goals and resources of development agencies, scientists will also have to recognize and cater to priorities set by governments and community leaders. This approach requires more pragmatism than science usually does. Sometimes it can even require cooperating with those responsible for environmental problems.

As scientists increasingly make headway in development institutions, the scope, scale, and sophistication of science- and nature-based projects—and their inclusion in national development agendas—are likely to grow. Such progress will ultimately help international organizations, countries, and communities prepare for risks and respond to impacts of future hazards.

References

Callahan, C. W., and J. S. Mankin (2023), Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth, Science, 380, 1,064–1,069,

Fischer, S. (2004), The IMF and Asian crisis, in IMF Essays From a Time of Crisis: The International Financial System, Stabilization, and Development, pp. 71–114, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.,

Radelet, S., et al. (1998), The East Asian financial crisis: Diagnosis, remedies, prospects, Brookings Pap. Econ. Activity, 1998(1), 90 pp.,

World Bank (1998), East Asia: The road to recovery, Rep. 18457, 138 pp., Washington, D.C.,

Author Information

Noel G. Brizuela (noelgb@ldeo.columbia.edu), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, N.Y.

Citation: Brizuela, N. G. (2024), Earth scientists are crucial to international development, Eos, 105, Published on 17 December 2024.

This article does not represent the opinion of AGU, Eos, or any of its affiliates. It is solely the opinion of the author(s).

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