Locust swarms threaten food security for millions of people

Desert locusts are notorious for their ability to transform from solitary insects into devastating swarms under specific environmental conditions.

Triggered by events like intense rainfall, these swarms can devastate crops, pushing food prices higher and leading to starvation and unrest. But now, a new study offers hope for controlling this menace.

The extent of the problem

Locust swarms are one of nature’s most destructive phenomena. Under favorable conditions, locusts form large groups, known as swarms, that can devastate entire regions.

These swarms can grow so massive that they resemble plagues, consuming staggering amounts of crops in their path.

To put this into perspective, a swarm covering just one square kilometer can eat enough food in a single day to feed 35,000 people.

This destruction severely impacts smallholder farmers, who rely on their crops for food and income. Regions like Africa and Asia, where food security is already fragile, are especially vulnerable. The loss of crops not only disrupts local economies but also threatens millions with hunger.

Locust swarms are becoming more frequent

The problem is worsening due to climate change. Increased cyclones and heavy rainfall, driven by global warming, create ideal breeding conditions for locusts. These events bring moisture to arid regions, encouraging vegetation growth that provides food for locusts.

As a result, locust outbreaks are becoming more frequent and severe, posing an even greater threat to food security in vulnerable regions.

Predicting locust swarms in advance

Researchers at the University of Cambridge have developed a predictive model to tackle locust swarms.

Using weather forecast data from the UK Met Office and computational models of locust behavior, the system predicts where swarms will move in their search for food and breeding sites. The results enable early interventions, such as targeted pesticide applications.

“During a desert locust outbreak, we can now predict where swarms will go several days in advance, so we can control them at particular sites,” said Dr. Renata Retkute, the lead researcher from Cambridge’s Department of Plant Sciences.

“And if they’re not controlled at those sites, we can predict where they’ll go next so preparations can be made there.”

New era of locust control

Until now, locust swarm predictions have been inconsistent. The researchers’ model represents a shift toward more effective responses.

By integrating real-time data on locust lifecycles, breeding behaviors, and weather patterns, the model offers both short- and long-term predictions.

“The important thing is to respond quickly if there’s likely to be a big locust upsurge, before it causes a major crop loss. Huge swarms can lead to really desperate situations where people could starve,” said Professor Chris Gilligan, senior author of the study.

Lessons from past locust swarms

The urgency of this innovation stems from a massive locust upsurge from 2019 to 2021, which stretched from Kenya to India.

This event devastated key crops like wheat, maize, and sugarcane, leaving many communities struggling. The response was hampered by disjointed information, revealing the need for a comprehensive model.

“The response to the last locust upsurge was very ad-hoc, and less efficient than it could have been. We’ve created a comprehensive model that can be used next time to control this devastating pest,” said Retkute.

The new model has undergone rigorous testing using surveillance and weather data from the 2019-2021 upsurge. It now stands ready to inform surveillance, early warnings, and management strategies.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and national agencies will use it to improve preparedness and response.

“Countries that haven’t experienced a locust upsurge in many years are often ill-prepared to respond, lacking the necessary surveillance teams, aircraft, and pesticides,” noted the researchers.

Climate change further complicates the picture, altering the movement and spread of swarms, making proactive measures like this model essential.

By combining advanced technology and comprehensive data, the predictive model will help mitigate the devastation caused by desert locust swarms. Using this tool, nations can act quickly and decisively, preventing crop loss and protecting food security for millions of people.

The study is published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.

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