How AI Is Reshaping Economies And Empires

If we let the trends of yesterday shape tomorrow, we are all but guaranteed to live in a world in … [+] disarray.

Amir Husain

A Coming Disruption

The global labor market is on the brink of a seismic shift, driven by the forces of artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and offshoring. Layoffs in bellwether sectors like technology, finance, and manufacturing are already making headlines. Companies like Meta, Amazon, and Google have shed tens of thousands of jobs, citing a need to streamline operations and improve productivity. Meanwhile, the remote work revolution has enabled offshoring at unprecedented scales, allowing businesses to tap into skilled labor markets in countries like India, the Philippines, and Eastern Europe at a fraction of the cost.

This disruption is exacerbating trends of worker disaffection and economic disparity. According to a recent Pew Research Center study, the middle class—once the backbone of the American economy—continues to shrink. Many of those displaced are unable to transition into new roles, either due to skill mismatches or the sheer pace of technological change. For example, the rise of generative AI has made many content creation and programming jobs redundant, while autonomous systems are replacing roles in logistics, transportation, and customer service.

The consequences of these disruptions are already playing out politically. Displaced workers and economically insecure populations are gravitating toward populist movements, which promise protectionism, anti-globalization policies, and curbs on immigration. In the United States, Europe, and beyond, political polarization is deepening, fueled by economic resentment and a perception that governments and corporations prioritize profits over people. If current trends persist, this discontent will only intensify, threatening societal cohesion and democratic stability.

But why and how do I say this? What is the basis for such a prediction and what exactly are the specific outcomes we can expect?

Theoretical Frameworks to Predict the Future

As research for my upcoming book, “The Cybernetic Society,” I spent years studying trends and building a predictive model of the future based on what I observed. To do this, I used three principal scaffoldings and areas of study to develop an integrated framework that can process the data and deliver likely contours of what we can expect from the future, barring asteroid hits or unexpectedly rapid changes in trajectory.

What are these frameworks and areas of study? The first is comprised of Moore’s Law and similar expositions of the exponential progress of technology. Moore’s Law applies to semiconductors specifically, but similar laws, such as Metcalfe’s Law regarding the value of networks, are broadly applicable to many other areas of tech. The progress we’re seeing in CPUs, for example, is also being seen in solar power as efficiency takes off and costs plummet.

The second predictive framework is provided by Cliodynamics, a theory of societal cycles and a study of the key drivers of their peaks and troughs.

The third framework is the laws of scale as chronicled and studied by Geoffrey West.

Exponential Technologies

Exponential growth laws, such as Moore’s Law, have historically guided our understanding of technological progress. Moore’s Law—predicting that the number of transistors on a chip doubles approximately every two years—symbolizes the broader trend of accelerating innovation. Today, AI systems, robotics, and computational power are advancing at rates that outpace traditional economic and educational systems. Exponential growth implies that the disruptive potential of these technologies is not linear but compounding, leading to unpredictable consequences in shorter timeframes.

Cliodynamics and Historical Dynamics

Peter Turchin’s cliodynamics provides a framework for understanding societal cycles through quantitative modeling of historical data. Turchin predicts periodic waves of social unrest, often driven by economic inequality, elite overproduction, and declining societal trust. His models suggest that the United States is entering a “disintegrative phase,” characterized by declining living standards and increased political instability. The rapid erosion of secure employment and wage stagnation due to AI and offshoring align with Turchin’s predictions of systemic upheaval.

Scaling Laws and Urban Stability

Geoffrey West’s research on scaling laws in cities offers a lens through which to examine the economic and social stability of urban centers. Cities, according to West, are engines of innovation and productivity, but their sustainability hinges on maintaining certain thresholds of employment and income. Below these thresholds, cities risk rapid collapse. West’s models imply that mass unemployment driven by AI and automation could undermine the very fabric of urban economies, leading to cascading failures in infrastructure, governance, and societal order.

So, when you combine these frameworks and use them to process the data we now have on societal trust, employment, technological advancement and other related areas, what can we say about the future? Quite a lot, actually.

Some Chilling Predictions

Short-Term (0–5 Years): An Era of Adjustment

In the immediate future, layoffs and job displacement will accelerate. AI’s integration into white-collar professions will render many mid-level roles obsolete, from legal assistants to financial analysts. Companies will prioritize cost-cutting, leveraging remote work and offshoring to access cheaper labor pools. Political disagreements will deepen as displaced workers demand government intervention, while populist leaders capitalize on growing discontent.

Social safety nets will be stretched thin. Existing retraining programs will prove inadequate, and structural unemployment will rise. Wealth inequality will grow as the owners of capital—those who control AI —amass disproportionate gains. Simultaneously, consumer demand may weaken, creating deflationary pressures and stagnating economic growth.

Medium-Term (5–15 Years): A Great Displacement

Over the next decade, structural unemployment will become entrenched. Entire sectors, such as logistics, retail, and basic programming, will be dominated by autonomous systems. Even creative fields, once thought immune to automation, will face disruption as generative AI tools become more sophisticated. The middle class will shrink further, leading to a bifurcated society of high-skill, high-income workers and low-skill, low-income laborers.

Urban centers in high-income countries may experience rapid decay, particularly those reliant on industries susceptible to automation. Cities that fail to attract high-tech industries or adapt to new economic realities will face population decline and infrastructure degradation. Social unrest will become more frequent, with mass protests and political instability becoming the norm in affected regions.

Long-Term (15+ Years): A New Socioeconomic Paradigm

Well before the mid-21st century, technological unemployment could reach unprecedented levels. Governments will face pressure to implement radical policy interventions, such as universal basic income (UBI) or wealth redistribution measures. However, these policies will face resistance from entrenched elites and politically divided societies.

Global power dynamics will shift as emerging economies leverage AI and offshoring to ascend economically. High-income countries that fail to adapt to these shifts may experience relative decline. Meanwhile, ethical dilemmas surrounding AI governance and the tremendous power wielded by Big Tech and a few tech billionaires will come to the forefront. All these elements risk exacerbating inequality and societal fragmentation.

In this period, the West in particular, may transition into a “post-work” economy, where AI and automation handle most productive activities. In theory, this could lead to unprecedented prosperity, achieving it will require significant cultural, political, and economic adaptation. Without effective governance, the future could resemble a dystopia of extreme inequality and widespread disenfranchisement rather than a utopia of shared abundance. There is also the issue of human purpose; as they say, “an idle mind is the devil’s playground.”

The coming decades will test our ability to adapt to profound technological and societal changes. While the challenges are immense, so too are the opportunities to reimagine our economic and social systems. Whether we emerge stronger or fractured will depend on how we react; do we collaborate internationally or vent our anger in the form of wars? Do we begin to live within our means or resent any adjustments that will restore budgetary space for developmental activities? Do we continue to look at our global future only through the lens of security interests and military interventions or do we redirect those trillions to education, health and social progress? Our collective choices in the face of these disruptions will deliver to us the future we deserve.

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