‘An elevated risk of local extinction’

New research shows coral reefs might not keep up with ocean warming without fast action to limit Earth’s heating to two degrees, reported Phys.org.

What’s happening?

Scientists at Newcastle University in the U.K. created a model to study how well corals can evolve to handle warmer waters.

The findings, published in the journal Science, reveal that natural selection can help corals survive rising temperatures, but only if we meet goals set in the Paris Agreement.

“The reality is that marine heat waves are triggering mass coral bleaching mortality events across the world’s shallow tropical reef ecosystems, and the increasing frequency and intensity of these events is set to ramp up under climate change,” said Dr. Liam Lachs, who led the research.

“From modeling this current emissions scenario, we expect to see profound reductions in reef health and an elevated risk of local extinction for thermally sensitive coral species.”

Why is coral survival important?

Coral reefs protect coastlines and support ocean life, which millions of people depend on for food and jobs. They shelter fish, create tourism opportunities, and maintain the health of our oceans.

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Without meeting Paris Agreement targets, Earth could warm by 3-5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Even natural selection might not save sensitive coral species at these temperatures, warns Professor Peter Mumby from Australia’s University of Queensland.

“We can still have fairly healthy corals in the future, but this requires more aggressive reductions in global emissions and strategic approaches to coral reef management,” Mumby said.

What’s being done about coral protection?

Scientists are exploring ways to help corals survive. The Coralassist Lab studies how to boost coral adaptation through selective breeding and other methods that could improve heat tolerance.

The loss of coral reefs would harm coastal communities, decrease fish populations, and weaken ocean health. Many people who rely on reefs for their daily needs would struggle.

You can support coral protection by reducing energy use, choosing clean power, and backing policies that cut warming. Small actions add up. Switching to LED bulbs or taking shorter showers saves both money and coral reefs.

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