Budget 2025: Bajaj Broking anticipates infra, capex push; Park Hotels, DCX Systems, Ion Exchange among top stock picks

Budget 2025: The Union Budget, which is scheduled for announcement on February 1, is expected to significantly influence investor sentiment given the current domestic economic slowdown and increasing global uncertainties, according to Bajaj Broking. This important financial plan will be examined carefully for its strategies designed to promote economic growth and tackle existing challenges. Its emphasis on encouraging sustainable development will be critical in shaping the perspectives of both domestic and international investors.

Sectors to Watch

According to Bajaj Broking Research Team, Budget 2025 must be a catalyst to drive the Indian economy amid sluggish economic growth. The brokerage house expects the Budget to boost allocations towards capital expenditure allocation, particularly in infrastructure. The thrust on roads, railways, and urban development should drive broader economic activity.

“We expect the capital expenditure push to be complemented by higher transfers to states, enabling robust regional infrastructure development,” said Bajaj Broking.

Further it added that the financial services landscape presents exciting opportunities with public sector banks and insurance companies likely to see capital infusion to strengthen their balance sheets. In core sectors, cement and metal industries should benefit from increased infrastructure and housing development initiatives. Import duty calibration will be crucial in shaping domestic manufacturing competitiveness.

Also Read | Union Budget 2025: Top 10 moves that could benefit every middle-class homebuyer

The automotive sector’s transformation continues with the PM E-Drive and Auto PLI Policy frameworks.

“We expect these initiatives to accelerate electric vehicle component localization significantly,” added the brokerage.

Consumer demand could strengthen through enhanced rural spending via MGNREGA. A cut in indirect tax would also increase disposable income in the hands of households and could enhance spending towards discretionary goods.

For NBFCs, the proposed reduction in the SARFAESI Act loan limit to ₹1 million would enhance recovery mechanisms. The brokerage anticipates new credit guarantee schemes for microfinance, similar to successful SME models, to revolutionize grassroots lending. While the insurance sector may maintain the status quo on tax rates and GST structures, this stability supports long-term planning.

“In consumer sectors, we expect calibrated measures including mid-to-high single-digit cigarette tax adjustments, alongside increased PM Awas Yojana allocations. The pharmaceutical sector needs focused R&D support through tax incentives and PLI schemes, particularly for anti-diabetic medications. The anticipated increase in Ayushman Bharat funding signals continued healthcare prioritization,” said the brokerage house.

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The energy sector has seen a renewed focus on green initiatives and this is expected to continue. The oil and gas sector will await clarity on LPG under-recovery compensation, considering the ₹22,000 crore precedent in FY23. The proposed reduction in auto fuel excise duties could help manage inflation pressures while supporting consumption.

While this budget is significant, focus on execution intensity and timely implementation must be incentivised to realise the full potential of budgetary allocations and infrastructure spending.

Pre-Budget 2025 – Stock Picks

Here are the Pre-Budget Stock Picks 2025 from Bajaj Broking. In the Hotel and Restaurants sector, the brokerage has selected Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd; for Defence, it has chosen DCX Systems; and in Water Management, Ion Exchange (India).

Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Ltd – Buying range ₹190-200; Target ₹235; Time Horizon 12 Months

The brokerage has cited strong operational performance and a diversified presence throughout India as the reasons for the investment. According to the brokerage, the business routinely beats competitors in terms of revenue per available room, occupancy rates, and average room rates (ARR). Competitiveness, a strong financial and operational record, and excellent returns on capital invested are guaranteed by its strategic focus on optimizing occupancy and revenue indicators.

“We expect the stock to head towards 235 levels in the coming year being the confluence of the previous all time high and measuring implication of the recent range (206-176),” the brokerage said.

DCX Systems – Buying range ₹355-380; Target ₹449; Time Horizon 12 Months

With end-to-end solutions comprising cable and wire harnesses, electronic sub-systems, premium System Integration, and PCB assembly, DCX Systems is a major participant in the defense and aerospace sectors. Customers from Israel, the United States, Korea, and India make up the company’s broad clientele.

“We expect the stock to head towards 449 levels in the coming quarters being the confluence of the previous major high and rising trendline resistance joining previous major highs,” said the brokerage.

Ion Exchange (India) – Buying range ₹615-660; Target ₹780; Time Horizon 12 Months

Ion Exchange (India) offers complete solutions for the entire water cycle, including pre-treatment, process water treatment, wastewater treatment, recycling, zero liquid discharge, sewage treatment, packaged drinking water, and saltwater desalination.

“We expect the stock to head towards 780 levels in the coming year being the 123.6% external retracement of the last decline (755-599),” the brokerage firm said.

Also Read | ICICI Bank lists 6 key themes that may dominate Budget 2025

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.

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