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The import of goods from Poland to Ukraine has doubled compared to pre-2022 levels, with this increase attributed to, among other factors, Russian aggression as well as other global tensions and Ukraine’s pro-European course. Additionally, Poland is Ukraine’s second-largest supplier after China.
According to the Polish Economic Institute, Polish exports to Ukraine grew by 80% between 2021 and 2023, outpacing other avenues for Polish exports. The primary reasons include Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s closer alignment with the European Union, and the formation of trading blocs and alliances in the global economy. This ongoing fragmentation, state protectionism, and polarization of the world are expected to ultimately mark the end of the era of globalization and free trade.
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In 2021, Polish exports to Ukraine accounted for 2.1% of Poland’s total exports. By the first three quarters of 2024, this figure had risen to 3.6%, making Ukraine the 7th largest market for Polish goods. Although it still represents a relatively small share, its dynamic growth reflects the strengthening of trade relations.
The vast majority of goods imported from Poland to Ukraine consist of weapons and ammunition. This is followed by vehicles, machinery, spare parts, fuel, and electrical equipment. These products are used both in combating the Russian aggressor and in rebuilding the damage caused by the war.
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A significant portion also consists of food products. As a result, Poland is the second-largest supplier of goods to Ukraine, surpassing Germany. The largest share of goods comes from China.
Ukrainian exports to Poland are lower and show a slightly declining trend. From 2021 to 2023, their value amounted to €4.2 billion ($4.4 billion), €6 billion ($6.3 billion), and again €4.2 billion ($4.4 billion), respectively, with a noticeable drop recorded in 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, the value of imports reached €3.3 billion ($3.44 billion). From Ukraine’s perspective, Poland is a key market for its goods. Poland primarily imports iron, steel, metal ore, fats, and vegetable oils from Ukraine.
Perspectives and Challenges
For the growth of trade between neighboring countries, the modernization and development of railway, road, and border crossing infrastructure are essential. From Ukraine’s perspective, the outcome of the war will be crucial in determining not only the volume but also the nature of its exports.
As a result of its aggression, Russia has occupied resource-rich territories, including areas with rare earth metals. The scale and structure of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction will also play a significant role. The destroyed energy and industrial infrastructure present enormous challenges for the economy.
Political events are another critical factor. A deteriorating political climate does not favor business, nor do border crossing blockades with Ukraine, which occurred multiple times between 2023 and 2024.
At a meeting organized by the Polish Governmental Council for Cooperation with Ukraine at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister in Warsaw, where a report by the Polish Economic Institute was presented, Kyiv Post asked about the trade losses resulting from these blockades. Neither government representatives nor institutional officials had data on the subject, pointing to methodological challenges in obtaining it.
According to Kyiv Post sources associated with business representatives and relevant institutions, the nominal and reputational losses were significant. Government representatives emphasized that border crossings now hold the status of strategic infrastructure, which could help prevent future issues.
The acceleration of Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations and its integration into the European market will have a favorable impact on increasing mutual trade. The construction industry also holds significant potential.
The rebuilding of Ukraine, along with related projects such as the EU’s Ukraine Facility launched in 2024, will serve as a catalyst for economic growth in the region.
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