Asteroid 2024 YR4: Scientists warn of a football field-sized asteroid on a collision course with Earth

Throughout Earth’s history, our planet has faced numerous incidents where it has faced experiences of close encounters or asteroid hits where some of which have had significant impacts on the environment and life itself. These space rocks come in varied sizes from small pebbles to massive boulders, travelling through space.
When an asteroid strikes the Earth, the consequences can be catastrophic, one of the most well-known example is the asteroid impact that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs around 66 million years ago.
Possibility of a collision from an asteroid remains an evergreen issue for scientists and space agencies across the world. With the advancement of technology, astronomers can now track gigantic asteroid, said to be bigger than a football field, is rapidly hurtling towards the Earth and has a higher than average possibility of colliding with our planet in the year 2032. According to a research by the Abu Dhabi-based International Astronomy Center (IAC), the asteroid, codenamed ‘2024 YR4’ will pass very close to the Earth in 2032, and carries a high chance of collision.

NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) had discovered the asteroid on 27 December, 2024. Estimated diameter is between 40 to 100 meters across; this is at least over twice the size of a cricket pitch and, at maximum, the entire length of a football field, according to IAC Vice-President and member of International Asteroid Warning Network, Shawkat Odeh.
The IAC Vice-President, and member of the International Asteroid Warning Network, Shawkat Odeh confirmed that this asteroid comes dangerously close to our planet. Discovery resulted in an increase in alertness across space agencies in different parts of the world, as a way to continue monitoring its path. The possible scenarios of such an impact within the scientific community have stirred much air of fear as people struggle with the uncertainty and risk associated with this cosmic interloper.

Will the asteroid strike Earth?

NASA and other international space agencies closely follow the path of 2024 YR4, scoring it 3 on the Torino scale. The scale assessing the risk in terms of asteroid impact and has a score of 3, indicating that there is a 1 in 77 (1.3%) chance of collision with Earth on December 22, 2032. The cumulative chance beyond 2032 is 1 in 71, or 1.4%. However, despite these seemingly low odds, the asteroid’s magnitude and potential destruction cause for alarm.
The IAC report indicates that 2024 YR4 came closest to Earth on December 25 with a distance of about 829,000 kilometers. The next time it comes close to Earth is on December 17, 2028, and passes without posing the threat of a collision.However, its next flyby on December 22, 2032, presents a higher chance of impact, with Odeh emphasizing the potential danger due to the asteroid’s sheer size.

How impactful will the asteroid be on India?

Current data show that the asteroid will pass Earth at a distance of approximately 127,699 km or 79,348 miles on December 22, 2032, with an uncertainty of 1.408 million km or 0.87 million miles. The risk corridor stretches from the Pacific Ocean to South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, and northern India for potential impact locations. Shawkat Odeh noted that the asteroid is only observable for 34 days, which limits its visibility since it does not emit much light. He therefore called on observatories across the world to monitor this dangerous body in space closely.

What is the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth?

The diameter of 2024 YR4 is estimated to be as large as the asteroid that caused the Tunguska event in Siberia in 1908. Scientists expect that the impact damage, if it occurs, would be local rather than global. The Tunguska event flattened an area of about 2,000 square kilometers of forest, uprooting 80 million trees with a force equivalent to 10-15 megatons of TNT.

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