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India-Pakistan relations are generally analysed from a realist perspective that perpetuates mutual misgivings. The nuclear-armed neighbors have fought four wars besides engaging in various skirmishes at the Line of Control. However, India’s participation in the recent SCO moot in Islamabad, the brief interaction between the two countries’ foreign ministers coupled with trade-oriented signaling by former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, provide us with thematic context to problematise India-Pakistan relations in light of geoeconomics that encourages trade, investment and market linkages than military competition and wars. India-Pakistan peace would also help with strategic stability in South Asia, which the US also desires.
India and Pakistan’s relations have generally been analysed from a realist perspective that arguably perpetuates mutual mistrust and a military mindset. The centrality of the nation-states ensconced in an anarchic environment is epistemologically privileged. Litter wonder, India-Pakistan relations offer four wars and multiple rounds of skirmishes on the Line of Control when seen from (neo) realist lenses. Thus, it is conceptually pertinent to problematise India-Pakistan relations in light of an alternative perspective. This opinion employs the concept of geoeconomics to analyse the most recent diplomatic interactions between the two countries.
In contrast to conventional IR theories, i.e. (neo)realism, which essentialises (military) security and maximisation of the ‘national interest’ often through hard measures, geoeconomics, on the other hand, prioritises economic tools such as trade and investment to realise socioeconomic growth and human development. Economics then becomes the fundamental tenet of a state’s internal and external stability. One of the many assumptions of geoeconomics is how it helps reduce conflict since states are dependent upon one another for economic resources. Resultantly, countries cooperate out of rationality, which helps in maintaining peace and order cross-regionally.
Hence, the idea puts forth a convincing argument for Pakistan and India to negotiate peace, given the economic challenges that face these countries. Seen from a geoeconomic lens, cooperation through economic interdependence could help alleviate challenges of high inflation, abject poverty, unemployment, street crimes, and, above all, hopelessness. Having access to each other’s markets will generate mutual growth and foster strategic stability. Given India’s global influence, it is a fact that as matters stand, Pakistan would reap more benefits through this alliance, enhancing the country’s image globally.
Moreover, geoeconomics includes the principle of amassing power through economic in addition to military assets. Both countries need to establish frameworks for cooperation in trade and market access. For instance, if Pakistan normalises relations with India, it would be able to improve its extremely poor economy. For India, power in the market of the region would enhance its position in the world. Seeing such dynamics, the importance of geoeconomics is very high – deepening the economic dialogues and the resolution of conflicts.
In light of the aforementioned, there is room for India and Pakistan to pursue bilateral ties through trade and economic partnership. Both states are navigating through complex internal economic circumstances
It is important to note that the arbitrary integration of Jammu and Kashmir as a union territory by Modi-led India in 2019 has fueled tension between the two countries. Consequently, the then Pakistani prime minister, Imran Khan, announced the suspension of trade with India. However, by 2021, the Khan government seemingly sent vibes to India in terms of exploring trade opportunities. Khan might have carried the blessings of the Bajwa-led military in this respect, as the latter has also been affected by dwindling economic indicators over the years. However, considering the political cost of opening up trade with India, the Khan government retreated. Later, he was ousted from office owing to troubled ties with the then-military top brass, particularly General Bajwa.
Importantly, the current Pakistani federal government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has not yet publicly vowed to upscale bilateral trade with India. However, his elder brother, Nawaz Sharif has recently vouched for open-trade policies with India, owing to his business-minded approach to tackling matters of foreign affairs. Sharif’s earlier attempt to normalise relations with India, however, backfired in 2016-2017 due to the disapproval of the country’s powerful military establishment. Conventionally, the militaries do not think along the lines of economic pragmatism; they solely focus on territorial sovereignty from a military mindset.
Nonetheless, recently, geoeconomic considerations seem to have enveloped Pakistan’s bureaucratic coteries. This was reflected during the brief but crucial interaction between India’s
External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar who attended the 23rd SCO summit held in Pakistan on the 15th and 16th of October 2004, and Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Mr Ishaq Dar. However, like the Pakistani military’s traditional stance on India, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also adopted a more complex approach towards Pakistan. His government did not back away from India’s historical claim over Kashmir, regarding it as an internal matter, thus keeping Pakistan at arm’s length. Interestingly, however, the Modi Sarkar has also exercised economic collaboration with Pakistan (low-scale bilateral trade) to a limited extent, implicitly acknowledging the advantages of regional cooperation and stability.
If geoeconomics is a guide, leadership in India and Pakistan need to revisit the revisionist mindset and enhance trade cooperation. In this respect, Nawaz Sharif’s message ought to be received positively within and outside Pakistan. Internally, the military leadership may find a window of opportunity in terms of exploring trade linkages with the fifth largest economy in the world. Externally, India, on its part, can access a sizeable market in Pakistan, which currently faces numerous economic challenges. With time, both India and Pakistan could also access Central Asian markets via Afghanistan whose regime is desperately looking for trade opportunities with its neighbors. As a geoeconomic tool, regional trade can also be instrumentalised in making durable peace in Afghanistan and importantly defusing India-Pakistan tensions. Regional peace and stability also align with the US’ strategic goals for South Asia.
In light of the aforementioned, there is room for India and Pakistan to pursue bilateral ties through trade and economic partnership. Both states are navigating through complex internal economic circumstances that can be improved by employing the geoeconomic logic in terms of preferring economic rather than military competition. This is the only way forward for these nuclear-armed neighbors to support their poverty-stricken populations, who are structurally constrained to drink unclean water and breathe polluted air.
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