A surprising marketing season and an upcoming potato year full of uncertainties and risks

The harvested potatoes from the NEPG zone (EU-04, i.e. BE, DE, FR, and NL) in 2024 amount to 24,7 million tons, a 6,9 % rise regarding the 2023 harvest. In spite of the supply increase, the market is still dynamic. Producer prices rose from 12,50 €/100 kg in October – November 2024 to 30,00 €/100 at the beginning of February. The rapid rise since the beginning of January is rather surprising. Stock assessments over the coming months, as well as the timing and conditions of spring planting, will be of prime importance for price trends this season.

2025: area increase with weak profitability risk?
With a dynamic market (and few other alternatives), it seems very likely that coming spring, potato farmers will plant more potatoes than last season.

Farmers must seriously take into account the yearly trend of lower yields (see graph) which means higher production costs per ha. But a higher area means higher risks of a good overall production should we plant early and if we have a normal growing season

Stable contract prices and more expensive production costs
While seed is usually less expensive than last spring (Innovator-type varieties are the exception), they are up by 10 to 15 % if compared to the 2023 prices. Production costs have somewhat risen, and risks are ever more important for farmers. Some processors use dissuasive tariffs to encourage growers to limit soil tare.

Throughout the NEPG zone, contracts are mostly stable throughout the storing season. Future changes and evolutions will depend on free buy prices for processing potatoes.

Uncertain global markets and challenges for export
The market is influenced by more risks and costs in line with US presidential decisions, expanding Chinese and Indian fry exports, and tougher environmental decisions in the EU.

EU-04 export of frozen potato products could suffer from future erratic decisions made by the new US president. At the same time, the European potato sector must be aware of growing alternative fry export players like China, India, Egypt, Argentina, and Turkey.

During that time, influences of climate change, tougher pesticide regulations and availability, more soil-borne problems (nematodes, wireworm, edible nutsedge…), and upcoming diseases such as Stolbur as well as more problems and legislation linked to nitrogen leaches in groundwater made potatoes technically and economically more difficult to produce and financially more risky. The need for efficient tools is a big issue to have a good quality for the entire crop.

Many uncertainties concerning next season’s free buy prices and processed products sales
With the very probable bigger potato area and uncertain export markets for the EU-04, growers must be aware they are taking risks in expanding their potato hectarage. Producers must follow processing needs and not precede them.

For more information:
Daniel Ryckmans
NEPG
Tel: +33 81/61.06.56
[email protected]

_{Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.}