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SBI Research estimates FY25 GDP growth at 6.3% – Economy News
SBI Research in a report has estimated India’s GDP growth to come in at 6.3% in FY25, on the assumption that no major revision takes place for Q1 and Q2 growth figures released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
The SBI’s estimate is 10 basis points (bps) lower than the NSO’s forecast of 6.4% growth for the current fiscal year.
In Q1 and Q2, GDP had grown by 6.7% and 5.4%, respectively. For Q3, SBI estimates growth at 6.2-6.3%, based on its ‘nowcasting model’, which analyses data from 36 high-frequency indicators.
“Despite upheavals in global geo-politics, and trade/supply chains being susceptible to winds of re-globalization, Indian economy has been leaning against the winds,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic adviser, SBI.
The percentage of indicators showing acceleration has increased to 74% in Q3FY25 from 71% in Q2FY25. Capex is showing improvement in Q3FY25 with majority of the states’ capex, as % of Budget estimate (BE), being lower in FY25 on date but embracing a momentum in Q3 FY25 which augurs well for future developments, said Ghosh.
IIP manufacturing growth has improved from 3.3 % in Q2 FY25 to 4.3 % in Q3 FY25 and SBI Index also showing positive momentum in Q3, said the report.
Moreover, Indian Inc has reported positive EBIDTA growth/margins (44 bps) after two quarters, while Corporate GVA has improved substantially (QoQ), noted the report.
Around 4,000 corporates in listed space reported revenue growth of 6.2% while EBIDTA and profit after tax (PAT) grew by around 11% and 12% respectively, in Q3FY25 as compared to Q3FY24.
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