Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.goldderby.com
We are just over a week away from the Grammy nominations, so now is the time to finalize your Gold Derby predictions. Some races feel clearer than others, especially in the General Field. For Album of the Year, forecasters have focused on a solid group of 10 contenders, making a perfect prediction score seem more achievable. The Record and Song of the Year races, however, seem more open. With an eclectic mix of contenders — big and niche, veterans and newcomers alike — both categories are shaping up to be wild races.
Here are three key questions to consider as you lock in your predictions ahead of the Nov. 16 nominations announcement.
Album of the Year
1.
Olivia Rodrigo
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love
2.
Olivia Dean
The Art of Loving
3.
4.
5.
Raye
This Music May Contain Hope
6.
7.
Taylor Swift
The Life of a Showgirl
8.
Noah Kahan
The Great Divide
9.
Phoebe Bridgers
Lost Weekend
10.
11.
12.
Harry Styles
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
13.
14.
15.
Brandi Carlile
Returning to Myself
How similar will the Record/Song lineups be?
Record of the Year and Song of the Year are distinct categories. Song of the Year honors a track’s songwriters, while Record of the Year recognizes the performers and production team. But the categories can have strikingly similar lineups. In last year’s nominations, seven of the eight Record of the Year nominees also appeared in Song of the Year. Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” was nominated for Record but not Song, while Huntr/x’s “Golden” made the Song lineup but not Record.
Record of the Year
1.
2.
3.
4.
Taylor Swift
The Fate of Ophelia
5.
Ella Langley
Choosin’ Texas
6.
7.
8.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
Berghain
9.
Ariana Grande
Hate That I Made You Love Me
10.
Noah Kahan
The Great Divide
11.
Beyonce
Morning Dew, Donk
12.
Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
Bring Your Love
13.
14.
Phoebe Bridgers
Lost Boys
15.
Zara Larsson
Midnight Sun
This year, the lineups could again look similar. Gold Derby’s current odds predict six of the same eight artists in both categories. But Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift are predicted with different songs in each: Mars with “I Just Might” for Record and “Risk It All” for Song, and Swift with “The Fate of Ophelia” for Record and “I Knew It, I Knew You” for Song. The song lineups would therefore differ even where the artists overlap.
Song of the Year
1.
2.
3.
4.
Ella Langley
Choosin’ Texas
5.
Noah Kahan
The Great Divide
6.
Taylor Swift
I Knew It, I Knew You
7.
Sienna Spiro
Die on This Hill
8.
9.
Taylor Swift
The Fate of Ophelia
10.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
Berghain
11.
Bruce Springsteen
Streets of Minneapolis
12.
Ariana Grande
Hate That I Made You Love Me
13.
14.
Phoebe Bridgers
Lost Boys
15.
Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
Bring Your Love
The remaining slots seem more up in the air. Folk star Noah Kahan is strongly predicted for Song of the Year and Album of the Year, but his acclaimed rock hit “The Great Divide” ranks outside the eight projected nominees for Record of the Year. Conversely, Album of the Year front-runner Rosalía is among the predicted eight for Record but outside the predicted Song lineup. Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” sits just outside the odds for both categories, but could break through if voters favor a more popular song. It has spent 22 weeks on the Hot 100 and currently sits at No. 10. In the same vein, Tame Impala and Jennie’s “Dracula,” which is predicted to reach a new peak this week, ranks No. 7 for Record and outside the top eight for Song. If you expect a pattern similar to last year’s, perhaps you should predict it for Song.
How pop will things be?
With the music industry spanning a wide range of genres and languages, a big question is how Grammy nominations will reflect that diversity, particularly when the lineups can lean heavily toward pop. Last year, six of the nine unique tracks nominated for Record or Song of the Year topped Pop radio. Among the other three were songs by pop favorites Billie Eilish and Chappell Roan, as well as Bad Bunny, whose music also has broad pop appeal. This year, songs by Olivia Dean, Bruno Mars, Taylor Swift, Tame Impala, Ariana Grande, and Raye are among the prominent pop contenders. Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure” also fits the pop lane associated with Eilish and Roan.
Kahan could end up in a similar spot to Bad Bunny. While he isn’t a major presence on pop radio, his folk and Americana music seems accessible to a broad audience. And then there’s Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” a country juggernaut that has set multiple chart records. It could transcend genre and earn a nomination anyway.
Other non-pop contenders could include Beyoncé’s “Morning Dew (Donk)”; Tems’ “What You Need”; “Berghain” by Rosalía, Björk, and Yves Tumor; Phoebe Bridgers’ “Lost Boys”; and “Bby Wow” by Karol G, Judeline and Rusowsky.
Will veterans block buzzy new acts?
In conversations with Grammy voters, we came away with the impression that this year’s nominations could favor passion over name-checks. That could extend to Record and Song of the Year, where some expect veteran artists to benefit from name recognition, even when their songs have generated less buzz or feel less innovative. Newer acts, however, could fare better than expected. Best New Artist hopeful Sienna Spiro is currently predicted to earn a Song of the Year nomination for her ballad “Die on This Hill,” ranking ahead of songs by Bruce Springsteen, Ariana Grande, Tame Impala, and Madonna in the current odds. Similarly, the current top five Song of the Year predictions feature artists who rose to mainstream prominence in the 2020s: Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need,” Olivia Rodrigo’s “The Cure,” Raye’s “Where Is My Husband!,” Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” and Noah Kahan’s “The Great Divide.”
That said, keep an eye out for veterans, especially those with “legend” status, who could sneak in. Springsteen’s “Streets of Minneapolis” was a headline-making ICE protest and topped Billboard’s U.S. Digital Song Sales chart, while Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Bring Your Love” could benefit from enthusiasm for the Queen of Pop’s Confessions II era.
