India’s retail market doubled over the past decade and could hit Rs 200 lakh crore over the next- The Week

The retail industry in India has seen a strong growth over the past decade, what with the growing middle class driving more shift to organised retailing and branded consumer and lifestyle goods on the one hand and the rapid rise of the affluent, which are driving growth at the premium and luxury end. 

In this backdrop, the retail industry has more than doubled to Rs 82 lakh crore from Rs 35 lakh crore over the past decade and could hit Rs 200 lakh crore over the next decade, according to Retailers Association of India and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). More precisely it is expected to touch Rs 190 lakh crore by 2034, growing 9 per cent annually.

According to Abheek Singhi, MD and senior partner at BCG, there is an opportunity for multiple trillion (lakh crore) rupee turnover retailers by 2035.

However, given the diverse market that India is, a one-size-fits-all approach may not work, stressed Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO, Retailers Association of India.

“India’s retail landscape is full of contrasts—affluence and value-consciousness, global aspirations and local pride, digital convenience and physical stores. The right choices, tailored to these realities, will determine long-term success,” he said. 

Of late, companies across the consumer spectrum have reported a slowdown in urban demand. RAI and BCG say despite periodic fluctuations, long term consumption growth remains strong, with increased spending on discretionary and experience-driven categories.

Notably, affluent households in India are expected to triple by 2030, and this will create significant opportunities in premium and luxury retail, they say.

“More households are moving into affluence and at the same time, value-for-money remains key to decision-making, hence retailers must strike a careful balance between driving aspiration and maintaining affordability,” RAI and BCG pointed.

Doubling of women’s workforce participation over the past five years has also driven growth in categories like beauty, fashion and personal care.

Gen Z and millennials also form large consumer cohorts, necessitating alignment with their values and digital-first habits, they added.

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