China’s Myanmar Gambit A Looming Threat To India’s Northeast, Warn Intel Agencies | Exclusive

Last Updated:March 03, 2025, 14:37 IST

China is actively engaging with Myanmar’s military junta and arming ethnic groups like the Arakan Army, further fuelling instability that spills over into Manipur

The agencies told CNN-News18 that a swift and inclusive resolution to the ongoing unrest in Manipur is crucial, ensuring all ethnic groups feel secure and connected to the nation. (PTI)

China’s deepening influence in Myanmar poses a significant threat to India, particularly in the fragile state of Manipur, intelligence agencies have warned.

The agencies told CNN-News18 that a swift and inclusive resolution to the ongoing unrest in Manipur is crucial, ensuring all ethnic groups feel secure and connected to the nation. The 1,693-kilometer border between India and Myanmar demands constant vigilance, especially given China’s aggressive actions, they added.

China has strategically positioned advanced radar systems, including the formidable Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR), in Yunnan province, directly bordering Myanmar, giving them alarming capability to monitor activity across the region.

“Beyond military manoeuvring, China is rapidly expanding its economic and political dominance over Myanmar, injecting instability into the region. Chinese investments now account for 26 per cent of Myanmar’s FDI, with bilateral trade exceeding $2 billion. In stark contrast, trade between India and Myanmar lags significantly, reaching a mere $1 billion.”

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the linchpin of its strategy, pouring funds into critical infrastructure projects like the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port, pipelines, and extensive road networks throughout Myanmar. This not only bolsters China’s economic grip but also provides strategic access routes.

What is more worrying is the fact that China’s support extends beyond economic ventures. They actively engage with Myanmar’s military junta and arm ethnic armed groups like the Arakan Army, further fuelling instability that spills over into Manipur. This directly undermines India’s own regional initiatives, such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, which relies heavily on peace and stability in Manipur.

This multifaceted strategy aligns with China’s “String of Pearls” doctrine – a calculated effort to encircle India by cultivating a network of allied nations and strategic outposts. These moves provide China with alternative routes to the Indian Ocean, circumventing the critical Malacca Strait chokepoint, the sources said.

A Chinese-dominated Myanmar could cripple India’s influence in the region, effectively dismantling its Act East Policy. The ongoing chaos within Myanmar — fuelled by civil war, ethnic armed groups, and a volatile military junta — creates a dangerous breeding ground for instability that inevitably affects India.

China is playing a dangerous double game: propping up the junta while simultaneously backing ethnic armed groups like the Arakan Army and United Wa State Army (UWSA). This deliberate strategy maintains turmoil and prevents Myanmar from achieving stability.

The consequences are being felt acutely in Manipur, which has become a hub for arms smuggling and insurgent activity, the agencies said. Myanmar-based groups like the UWSA have long-standing ties with Indian insurgent groups. Increased Chinese influence will only intensify the flow of weapons and fighters across the border.

Top intelligence officials are of the view that China’s activities in Myanmar are not merely about economic development but represent a clear and present danger to India’s security.

“We must continue to have strong engagement with Myanmar and other regional partners. We have to implement strong plans to connect India with the Northeast. Strong regional diplomacy and strategic infrastructure projects are key to ensuring that the Indo-Myanmar corridor remains favourable to Indian interests,” officials told CNN-News18.

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