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Heavy rainfall events in Kenya are set to increase in intensity, with extreme precipitation becoming more frequent, according to a new climate study assessing changes in East Africa’s rainfall patterns.
The research, published in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal last month, highlights how global warming is driving shifts in rainfall extremes with major implications for agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods.
“The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are also projected to increase with increased greenhouse gas emissions,” finds the study by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI).
Researchers warn that East Africa is expected to experience “an increase in both the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events,” leading to more frequent flooding.
A photo of motorists using the Thika Superhighway during cold and rainy weather on March 2023.
Photo
Kenya Met
Kenya’s changing rainfall patterns align with recent seasonal outlooks from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), both of which forecast erratic and extreme rainfall for the upcoming March- April- May (MAM) season.
Kenya Met’s latest projection in the Climate Outlook for the March- April- May (MAM) 2025 “Long Rains” season anticipates near-to-above-average rainfall in parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, while below-average rainfall is expected over northeastern Kenya and parts of the coast. “The season is likely to be characterised by a normal to late onset, with generally poor to fair distribution in both time and space,” the Met stated in its forecast.
This outlook echoes ICPAC’s findings, which indicate below-normal rainfall across much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, and parts of Ethiopia and Eritrea. “Below-average rainfall is expected over most of the Greater Horn of Africa, increasing concerns over water shortages and prolonged dry spells,” ICPAC reported in its seasonal climate forecast.
While the forecasts predict rainfall deficits in some regions, the climate study suggests that when it does rain, it will come in more intense bursts. “The increase in short-duration heavy precipitation events together with the enhanced pace of heat stress over the region will have critical implications for agriculture in general and local livestock production in particular,” the study warns.
These extreme rainfall events could lead to flash floods, damaging infrastructure, displacing communities, and exacerbating the spread of waterborne diseases. “The models simulate extreme annual 1-day and 5-day cumulative precipitation events over Lake Victoria, eastern Congo, and Ethiopian highlands,” the study notes, adding that such conditions are likely to worsen under high-emission scenarios.
Kenya’s history of rainfall variability has resulted in alternating periods of drought and flooding, with serious economic and humanitarian consequences. In 2024, devastating floods swept through parts of Nairobi and Kisumu, displacing thousands. Scientists fear that with climate change accelerating, such events will become more common.
Despite projections of heavy rainfall in certain areas, other parts of Kenya remain highly vulnerable to drought. The study highlights that “the risk of drought and consecutive dry days for some East African regions, such as parts of Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia and northern Kenya, is either neutral or slightly declining.” However, other areas, such as Tanzania, are likely to experience an intensification of drought conditions.
Temperature forecasts from Kenya Met indicate warmer-than-normal conditions across Kenya, particularly in the coastal and northern regions. Warmer temperatures, combined with intense rainfall events, can increase evaporation rates, leading to stronger storms and worsening the effects of extreme precipitation.
To mitigate the risks associated with shifting rainfall patterns, authorities are urging early preparedness and improved disaster response strategies.
Motorists using a flooded highway during cold and rainy weather in Nairobi
KNA
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