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India’s digital cart to hit $190 billion by 2030: Report
With over 270 million online shoppers, India has the second-largest e-retail shopper base globally, behind China, according to a report by Flipkart and Bain and Company.
As digital consumption accelerates, India’s e-retail is projected to reach $170–190 billion by 2030, the report added in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030. Currently, e-retail market in India has scaled to $60 billion in 2024.
A slower pace, but signs of a rebound
The retail boom comes at a time when the sector is navigating slower growth rates. After years of expanding at over 20 per cent annually, domestic e-retail growth has moderated to 10-12 per cent in 2024, impacted by macroeconomic pressures and a consumption slowdown slump.
However, this is expected to improve with projections set to exceed 18 per cent growth with nearly 1 in 10 retail dollars spent online, fuelled by increased discretionary spending as India’s per capita GDP surpasses $3,500–$4,000- a key inflection point observed in e-retail spending globally by 2030. Categories with high purchase frequency—such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise—are set to be the biggest drivers of this growth, contributing approximately 70 per cent of the incremental expansion.
Gen-Z
A significant portion of this digital retail is being driven by Gen Z shoppers, who now account for approximately 40 per cent of India’s e-retail customer base, who are more experimental, rely heavily on social media for brand discovery, spend three times more on insurgent fashion brands, make faster purchase decisions, and show a marked preference (over 90 per cent) for UPI for digital payments.
Tier-2, and tier-3
The growth story is no more limited to metros and tier-1 cities. Since 2020, 60 per cent of new online shoppers have come from tier-3 and smaller cities, with 45 per cent of total e-retail orders in 2023 originating from these regions. This geographical shift is particularly evident in the Northeast, where online orders are 1.2 times higher than the national average.
Tier-2 and smaller cities also demonstrate significant spending potential, as evident by their average selling prices across categories that are similar to or only slightly lower than those in metro, or tier 1 cities. The seller ecosystem is also diversifying, with 60 per cent sellers onboarded since 2021 hailing from tier-2 or smaller cities.
Interestingly, consumer spending power in these emerging markets is catching up. Average selling prices (ASP) in tier-2 and smaller cities are now comparable to those in metro regions, signaling a growing appetite for premium products. This demand is mirrored on the supply side as well—60 per cent of new e-retail sellers since 2021 hail from tier-2 and beyond,
By 2030, 1 in every 10 retail dollars in India is expected to be spent online, marking a profound shift in how consumers engage with brands and products.
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Published on March 27, 2025
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