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Ranjan Dhar, Director and Vice-President – Sales and Marketing, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AMNS India)
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The Centre should urgently implement “trade measures” — including the proposed safeguard duty on steel products — to protect the domestic industry from a potential surge in cheap imports, mostly from China, said Ranjan Dhar, Director and Vice-President – Sales and Marketing, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AMNS India).
He added that these measures are crucial not only to prevent market disruption but also to ensure confidence in future investment decisions by steel producers.
According to Dhar, as long as the trade measure are not in place, imports “will remain at an elevated level”.
12% duty
The DGTR, following a preliminary probe, recommended a 12 per cent safeguard duty on steel imports for a 200-day period, with price caps being put in place. The recommendation continues to be under consideration of the Finance Ministry.
“First of all, the recommendation was there from DGTR, and that needs to be implemented for us to understand whether this implementation will restrict something (imports) or not. If it does not, then probably more is needed. We have yet not seen the effect, since the suggestion has not been implemented (in the first place),”
After months of uptick, steel imports flattened to 0.9 million tonnes in January, and came down over 30 per cent sequentially in February to 0.6 mt. For March, there was another 8 per cent sequential decline to 0.54 mt.
For the fiscal, imports hit a 10-year high of 9.5 mt, as against exports – that are at a 10-year low of 5.0 mt.
“(For the first three months, imports) have been a little bit lower because the investigation suggested that there is a case for safeguard. So, people did not want to take a risk. People did not know that the percentage. The recommendation for 25 per cent,” he said.
Currently, China faces a supply glut with their domestic consumption not keeping pace with the production. In 2024, China exported 110 mt of the alloy; and the countries they were traditionally exporting the metal to – such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia — have also set-up their own manufacturing. So, the threat of dumping into India looms large.
Protecting Investments
Dhar said steel companies including AMNS India have been investing “very heavily” and the industry’s margins need to be protected.
“The Indian steel industry needs to be margin protected for the industry to keep on investing back into a bag into capacity expansion, which is happening. So, whatever it is getting generated is getting put back into the company,” he said, adding that: “if the companies are not profitable, the banks will not give (capex) loans. And for that, it is “very critical for the investments to continue.”
“For investment to continue, margins for the industry need to be protected,” Dhar added. “From that perspective, continuity of investment is very critical and that the industry is not injured.”
Accordingly, it is important, that government action (on trade measures) give confidence to the industry so that investments should continue.
“And the government is a reactive and not passive in protecting issue of industries,” Dhar said.
AMNS India has in the first phase charted out at ₹60,000 crore expansion plan to add nearly 50 per cent to its existing capacity at Hazira in Gujarat, to 15.6 mtpa (up from 9 mtpa).
“Our focus from all the investments that we are doing are currently domestic focussed. If there are opportunities to export, we will look at it then,” he said when asked that offerings in sectors like automotive, construction equipment, solar power, and others continue to target niche segments.
“We would actually want that exports of goods produced out of steel happens, rather than steel as it is. We would want maximum value addition should happen in the country. And then that value-added product should get exported,” he said.
Outlook
According to Dhar, currently, export opportunities “are low”; in addition to the geopolitical concerns surrounding tariffs.
“But we cannot pre-state something which we do not know fully; and currently negotiations are on,” he said.
Indian steel demand for FY26, Dhar said, is expected to be in 8–10 per cent range – much higher than global average while production increase should be in the 7 per cent bracket.
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Published on April 16, 2025
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