Global Commodity Prices To Drop To Six-Year Low By 2026 – World Bank

The World Bank has projected that global commodity prices will fall to their lowest levels since 2020 by 2026, according to its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.

The annual forecast indicates that prices of energy and food are expected to decline by 12% in 2025 and an additional 5% in 2026.

In a statement made available to New Telegraph, the World Bank said the projected fall in commodity prices could help moderate near-term inflation risks, especially those arising from rising global trade barriers.

Commodity prices have been on a downward trend since 2023, contributing to a global easing of inflationary pressures.

According to the report, energy prices are expected to drop by 17% this year—reaching their lowest level in five years—before falling another 6% in 2026.

The price of Brent crude oil is forecast to average $64 per barrel in 2025, down $17 from 2024 levels, and fall further to $60 in 2026.

Food prices are also projected to decline by 7% in 2025 and a further 1% in 2026.

World Bank Group Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics, Indermit Gill, noted that while high commodity prices have benefited many developing countries—two-thirds of which rely heavily on commodity exports—the outlook presents new challenges.

“We’re now seeing the highest price volatility in more than 50 years. The combination of high price volatility and falling prices spells trouble,” Gill said.

He advised developing countries to take three key steps to mitigate the risks: “First, restore fiscal discipline; second, create a more business-friendly environment to attract private capital; and third, liberalize trade wherever the opportunity exists.”

Also commenting, Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank and Director of the Prospects Group, described commodity prices throughout the 2020s as “whipsawing”—from crashing at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, surging to record highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and falling again thereafter.

“To navigate these repeated swings in commodity prices, developing economies must build fiscal buffers, strengthen institutions, and improve the investment climate to support job creation,” he said.

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