The Lobito Corridor: a potential game-changer for Zambia or the next TAZARA in the making? – Part One – Zambia: News Diggers!

The Lobito corridor has gained significant attention since its announcement in January 2023 with many stakeholders including industry players and civil society keenly examining the value it brings to the economy. At the core of this project is the transformative 1,300km railway line that seeks to connect Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Atlantic Ocean via Angola’s port of Lobito. This project presents a promising avenue to cement Zambia’s position as a central node in regional and global trade networks— especially for Zambia’s export diversification and industrial transformation. It is also aligns with Zambia’s national policies such as Vision 2030, the 8th National Development Plan (8NDP), National Trade Policy and the Green Growth Strategy that are aimed at promoting economic industrialisation, regional integration, and reduction of dependence on traditional southern routes via South Africa or Dar es Salaam.

The project is being spearheaded through a trilateral partnership among Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Zambia, positioning it not only as a logistical breakthrough but also as a flagship initiative for Western-backed infrastructure development in Africa—offering a counterpoint to China’s historical dominance in this space. Major funders include the U.S through the International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC), which has committed $250 million; and the EU, through the Global Gateway Initiative, which has pledged technical support as part of its €60 billion global infrastructure strategy. Regional institutions such as the African Development Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation have each committed $500 million.

Key private sector partners include the Lobito Atlantic Railway consortium, led by logistical firms such as Trafigura and Mota-Engil, which have secured a 30-year concession to operate and modernize the rail line. This level of involvement suggests an ambition to embed stronger governance, operational efficiency, and long-term sustainability into the project’s core design—critical elements for avoiding the pitfalls that plagued TAZARA. While the Lobito Corridor promises to be a “game changer,” its potential success hinges on avoiding the pitfalls of previous megaprojects like the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA). Originally hailed as a transformative infrastructure project in the 1970s, TAZARA aimed to link Zambia to the port of Dar es Salaam and reduce transport costs for exports. However, operational inefficiencies, aging infrastructure, and insufficient investment in modernization led to its decline. TAZARA struggled with financial losses. A 2013 rail report noted that its monthly revenue of $1.53 million fell short of its expenditure of $2.5 million. Moreover, alternative trade routes such as the Walvis Bay and Central corridors diverted significant traffic, further impacting TAZARA’s viability. Today, TAZARA is largely viewed as an underperforming asset, beset by governance failures and poor maintenance.

The Lobito Corridor is implemented in the wake of an energy transition era, with Zambia, DRC and Angola hosting a number of the worlds critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, manganese and lithium, required to respond to the global demand for clean energy. The project will unlock a direct, efficient trade route for Zambian and Congolese minerals, and consists of rehabilitated rail infrastructure in Angola and the DRC, with a proposed new railway stretching across northwestern Zambia. The initiative is part of a broader Western led geopolitical strategy, primarily driven by the US and EU to offer alternatives to China’s dominated trade routes and critical mineral supply chains.

This historical backdrop raises serious questions regarding the safeguards that the Zambian government has put in place to ensure that the Lobito Corridor does not follow the same trajectory. Without rigorous planning for Zambia’s local manufacturing, agricultural and mining sector, local participation of citizens, and a long-term governance framework, the Lobito Corridor risks repeating the TAZARA experience: high hopes, massive spending, and disappointing returns. In next week’s opinion, we will explore how Zambia can take advantage of its economic fortunes by positioning itself as a regional hub for trade, energy, and logistics.

About the Authors:

Barnabas Katawa Mwale currently serves as a Trade and Investment Researcher at the Centre for Trade Policy and Development. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics and Finance from the University of Lusaka and is currently pursuing a Master of Science in International Trade and Policy at ZCAS University.

Natalie Kaunda is a development economist with expertise in public policy, advocacy, and economic research. She serves as the Head of Advocacy and Campaigns at the Centre for Trade Policy and Development. She holds a bachelor’s degree in development studies from the University of Zambia and a master’s degree in economics and finance, with additional studies in sustainable development at the University of Cambridge.

_{Images are for reference only.Images and contents gathered automatic from google or 3rd party sources.All rights on the images and contents are with their legal original owners.}