Marvel Fan Finds Surprising Trend About MCU Movie Ratings (But Fantastic Four Might Break It)

A meticulous Marvel fan has unearthed a fascinating trend in the reception of recent Marvel Cinematic Universe films, suggesting a methodical alternating pattern of critical and audience duds followed by beloved hits. Reddit user WithArsenicSauce recently posted a detailed analysis on the popular /r/marvelstudios subreddit, compiling and averaging scores from four major review aggregate metrics: Rotten Tomatoes (both critic and audience scores), IMDb, and Letterboxd. By converting these varied ratings into a standardized 0-100 score and then calculating an average for each film, the user’s data reveals a distinct “one bomb, one hit” cycle that has seemingly been in effect since the release of 2022’s Thor: Love and Thunder. The question now is whether the highly anticipated Fantastic Four: First Steps will continue or decisively break this peculiar pattern.

According to WithArsenicSauce’s compilation, Thor: Love and Thunder kicked off this cycle with a middling average score of 58 out of 100. This was immediately followed by Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which garnered a significantly stronger average of 76, marking it as a “hit” in this sequence. The trend continued with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania dipping back down to an average of 54, only for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 to soar with an impressive 82. Subsequently, The Marvels saw a lower average of 57, which was then contrasted by the widely anticipated Deadpool & Wolverine achieving a robust 78. Most recently in this observed pattern, Captain America: Brave New World received an average of 55, followed by Thunderbolts*, which landed an average score of 81. This consistent yo-yo effect — low score, high score, low score, high score — paints a picture of an almost predictable wave in how these films are being received overall.

[RELATED: Thunderbolts* Is a Hit (But Will It Make Enough Money?)]

Rotten Tomatoes provides a percentage score from critics and a separate percentage score from audiences, both taken into account by WithArsenicSauce. IMDb uses a user-based rating out of 10 stars, and Letterboxd uses a 5-star system predominantly driven by its user community. Converting these into a unified 0-100 scale and averaging them aims to provide a more holistic view of each film’s overall reception across different segments of viewers and critics, instead of valuing only one source of feedback. While not an official studio metric, this fan-driven analysis offers a visual representation of the MCU’s fluctuating appeal in its post-Endgame era, addressing fans’ concerns about the continuity of the MCU.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Could Break the MCU’s Reception Curse

Image Courtesy of Marvel Studios

With Thunderbolts* seemingly locking in as a “hit” in the fan-observed alternating pattern with an average score of 81, the sequence would predict that the next MCU theatrical release, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, is due for a more lukewarm or even negative reception. However, many factors surrounding Marvel’s First Family suggest this highly anticipated film could be the one to shatter the curse. For starters, set for a prime summer release on July 25, 2025, The Fantastic Four: First Steps is the official MCU introduction of some of the most iconic characters in Marvel Comics history, a debut eagerly awaited since Disney’s acquisition of 20th Century Fox’s assets. Then, the film is tasked with kicking off Phase Six of the MCU, setting the stage for epic crossovers like Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars. So, it’s fair to assume Marvel Studios has been more careful while overseeing the production of The Fantastic Four: First Steps to avoid a failure that could damage the brand even further.

It’s also worth noting that Marvel Studios has assembled a compelling team for The Fantastic Four: First Steps. The core cast features Pedro Pascal as Reed Richards/Mister Fantastic, Vanessa Kirby as Sue Storm/The Invisible Woman, Joseph Quinn as Johnny Storm/The Human Torch, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Ben Grimm/The Thing. Adding to the anticipation, the film is confirmed to feature formidable cosmic villains, with Ralph Ineson cast as Galactus and Julia Garner portraying Shalla-Bal, a version of the Silver Surfer. Behind the camera, Matt Shakman, lauded for his Emmy-winning work on Marvel Studios’ critically acclaimed Disney+ series WandaVision, is directing. Shakman’s involvement alone has raised expectations for a unique and thoughtful approach to the material, increasing the odds that First Steps will bring back the Marvel wonder lacking from many recent projects.

Thunderbolts* is now available in theaters. The Fantastic Four: First Steps hits theaters on July 25th.

What do you make of this alternating reception pattern for recent MCU movies? And do you think Fantastic Four: First Steps will break the trend? Share your thoughts in the comments!

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