Original Coverage & Source Attribution: www.mk.co.kr
NVIDIA, the leader of artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor market, hit an all-time high on the 6th (local time), raising the possibility of surpassing 6 trillion dollars (about 8,057 trillion won) in market capitalization within this year. Nvidia, which has been on the rise for the fourth day, is breaking record highs for the second day in a row. Boosting stock prices are strong earnings prospects and $150 billion in share buybacks.
On the other hand, shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are looking for an opportunity to rebound due to concerns over a peak out of the global semiconductor industry (down after the peak), a theory of controlling the pace of AI investment, and anxiety among investors who experienced the highest level of volatility in the local stock market in July this year.
NVIDIA Reports 2 Days in a row
Nvidia closed at $239.2 on the New York Stock Exchange, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. It reached an all-time high of $243.3 during the session. Nvidia’s market capitalization was $5.7776 trillion as of 9:10 a.m.
Nvidia rose about 26.97% from $188.4 at the close of January 2 this year to the day ($239.2). Nvidia, which joined the “Trillion Club” by surpassing $1 trillion (about 1,342 trillion won) in market capitalization for the first time as of the closing price on June 14, 2023, plunged to $190 in July this year due to AI bubble theory.
It is performance expectations and share buybacks that have boosted stock prices. Nvidia is forecast to nearly double its revenue and net profit in fiscal year 2027. On top of that, the decision to add $150 billion to the existing share buyback program highlighted the ability to generate cash that can handle enormous AI investment and shareholder returns at the same time.
It has been on the rise since U.S. President Donald Trump announced a record $150 billion (about 204 trillion won) increase in the stock purchase limit on the 28th of last month and held a meeting with heads of AI companies, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Hwang.
Ben Emmons, managing director of High Line Asset Management, said, “The purchase of treasury stocks is not just a return to shareholders, but a capital allocation event that shows confidence in long-term AI demand.”
According to CNBC’s analysis, there is a 50% chance that Nvidia’s market cap will exceed $6 trillion in October. By December 18 this year, the possibility of reaching $6 trillion in market capitalization was about 67%.
Samjeon-Nix Quarterly Operating Profit of 200 trillion KRW
On the other hand, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix closed down -1.47% and -3.15% from the previous trading day, respectively, as of the closing price of the previous day. Investor sentiment is believed to have been dampened by Samsung Electronics’ provisional third-quarter results, the burden of ending its 15 trillion won share buyback program, and controversy over the rumor of SK Hynix’s U.S. grandson, Solidigm, going public in the U.S.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s third-quarter earnings (July-September) are considered the biggest variables.
According to FnGuide, a financial information company, Samsung Electronics’ consolidated operating profit forecast (consensus) for the third quarter of this year was 106.9435 trillion won. The forecast rose to 113.9877 trillion won in August due to the continued upward trend in memory, but it turned downward as the won’s value appreciated.
SK Hynix is also on the verge of breaking its all-time record. SK Hynix’s third-quarter operating profit consensus is expected to jump 578.37 percent year-on-year to 77.2214 trillion won. As a result, the combined operating profit of the semiconductor two-top in the third quarter is about KRW 184.16 trillion, and the two companies are about to open the era of KRW 200 trillion in combined operating profit.
Kim Young-gun, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, “HBM prices have ample room for additional hikes next year to narrow the profitability gap with general-purpose DRAM, and big tech companies’ demand for semiconductors on demand (ASIC) is much stronger than expected,” and predicted, “The supply shortage will continue.”
Ryu Young-hyo, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “AI demand is gradually spreading from business-to-business transactions (B2B) to business-to-consumer transactions (B2C),” adding, “We assumed a 45% increase in HBM ASP in 2027, but considering recent demand, we believe that upward adjustment is necessary.”
“Short-term performance expectations may be partially adjusted due to the impact of the exchange rate, but the sustainable profit stamina from the application of the LTA and the additional shareholder return policy to be materialized in the third quarter earnings announcement will positively affect the stock price,” he said. “We believe the upward trend will continue as fundamental changes are limited.”
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