After two muted years, CVs aim to hit 1 million sales in FY26 – commercial vehicles News

India’s commercial vehicle (CV) sales aim to cross 1 million units in FY26 after two slow years. Improved freight rates, rising infrastructure and mining activity, and policy support like PM-eBus Sewa are set to boost truck and bus demand, according to automakers and Crisil Ratings.

The March quarter commercial vehicle (CV) volume saw a growth of 1.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) but that is the modest performance the manufacturers were actually hoping for.

In FY25, the CV segment recorded its first annual fall in four years, effectively paving the way for an upcycle in demand for trucks and buses.

Auto makers have recorded an improvement in buyer sentiment for CVs stemming from better freight rates and pick up in mining and infrastructure activities in recent weeks. After ending FY25 at 0.95 million, the segment is expected to breach the 1 million volume milestone this year, as per Crisil Ratings.

Girish Wagh, executive director, Tata Motors said, “The sentiment index has gone up for heavy tippers. We should see a single digit growth across all the segments for FY26; slightly better growth for HCV (heavy commercial vehicles) and buses. Q2 should see better growth on a y-o-y basis.”

Speaking to analysts post the March quarter earnings, Wagh added, “Freight rates have improved in Q4 by 1-2% which is supported by better utilisation (2-5% higher), due to good commodity movement, stable agriculture produces and seasonal demand for white goods. There is good mining and infrastructure activity also.”

Since FY25 has been the second consecutive year of muted performance in the CV segment, trucks and buses makers are expecting vehicle replacement demand to kick in during FY26, aided by restart of some old government funded projects which had remained static. CVs had grown by 0.6% in FY24 and fell by 1.2% in FY25.

“Infrastructure projects are already coming back on track and this segment generates large demand. The CV segment is cyclical and FY26 has begun positively after two years of muted growth,” said a top official of a CV company.

Accelerating infrastructure execution, replacement demand and policy support from the PM-eBus Sewa scheme will drive up the domestic commercial vehicle (CV) sales volume to ~1 million units this fiscal, reclaiming the pre-pandemic peak logged in fiscal 2019, said a report by Crisil.

While manufacturers state that though volumes in FY24 and FY25 are lower than the peak of FY19 when 1 million CVs were sold, the total tonnage during FY25, however, surpassed that reported in FY19.

“The market has replaced two sub-one tonne trucks with one 5.5 tonne truck with much better power. Such changes are visible across segments. This is why the absolute CV volume may be low but tonnage was at an all-time high in FY25,” said another executive of a CV maker.    

However, improvement in rail connectivity for goods transport through projects like the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) will pose a challenge for the goods carrying trucks segment. While the eastern DFC is operational, the 1500km western DFC running between Dadri (Uttar Pradesh) and Jawaharlal Nehru Port in Raigad (Maharashtra) is expected to be open in December 2025.

“WDFC will carry a lot of container traffic and this may impact the trailer segment. But trucks will be needed for port to destinations and last mile delivery. I don’t see much of an impact,” Wagh added.  

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This article was first uploaded on May fourteen, twenty twenty-five, at twenty-two minutes past ten in the night.

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