India, Brazil to drive higher global sugar production in 2025-26

By Pune Media On May 23, 2025

Increase in sugar production in India and Brazil on account of favourable weather conditions is set to drive higher global output of the sweetener during the 2025-26 marketing year, starting October. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), this increase will help offset the decline in the European Union. Brazil and India are the top two sugar producers in the world followed by the EU.

Global sugar output is forecast to rise 8.6 million tonnes to 189.3 million tonnes during 2025-26, while consumption (human domestic) is seen rising 2.49 million tonnes to 177.92 million tonnes, the USDA said. Global exports are down with lower shipments expected from the European Union and Thailand, while ending inventories are forecast to rise to 41.18 million tonnes from last year’s 38.31 million primarily due to India and China, USDA said in its world market report.

In India, the USDA estimates sugar output to jump over 25 per cent to 35.3 million tonnes during 2025-26, from 28 million tonnes in the previous year, rebounding on favourable weather and increased area. Consumption is anticipated to rise, driven by food service sector growth, while exports and stocks are both up with the increase in supply, it said.

Similarly, in Brazil, the output is forecast up 1.0 million tonnes to a record 44.7 million tonnes with expected higher sugar yield due to favourable weather. “The sugar/ethanol production mix is expected to favour ethanol relative to the previous season, falling from 51 per cent to 49 per cent for sugar and rising from 49 per cent to 51 per cent for ethanol. Consumption is forecast to fall slightly while exports are up with higher production.” the USDA said.

Also in Thailand, the production is forecast up 2 per cent to 10.3 million tonnes due to increased sugarcane production and cane sugar yield. Consumption continues to rise but at a slower rate due to lower demand from export-oriented food processors. The exports are forecast to drop due to competition from other large exporters such as Brazil while stocks are expected to be flat, it said.

However, the USDA has forecast a dip in output in European Union and the US. Production in EU is forecast to fall 9 per cent to 15 million tonnes as sugar beet area is expected to be down 10 percent mainly among top producers such as France and Germany. “Consumption and ending stocks are relatively unchanged from the prior year. Imports are up with lower production while exports are forecast down,” it said.

The production in the US is forecast down slightly to 8.4 million tonnes, while in Australia it is set to hit a decade low of 3.8 million tonnes due to unfavourable weather. In China and Mexico the production is seen increasing to 11.5 million tonnes and 5.4 million tonnes respectively.

For the current marketing year 2024-25, the USDA has made revision from its November forecast and said that global production is down 5.9 million tons to 180.8 million. Output in EU was up 0.91 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes with strong sugar beet production in Poland and Germany.

In Brazil the output was up by 0.7 m tonnes to 43.7 million tonnes on rise in cane area, while in India the production was revised down 7.5 million tonnes to 28 million tonnes due to unfavourable weather and limited water for irrigation. The USDA said global imports during 2024-25 were flat at 56.6 million tonnes, while exports were raised to 1.3 milliom tonnes to 68 million tonnes. The global ending stocks are lowered 7.1 million tonnes to 38.3 million tonnes.

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Published on May 23, 2025

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