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Dan Ashiekaa
P
icture this: a bold roadmap to ignite Nigeria’s economic transformation—an audacious, actionable blueprint for inclusive growth, security, and global competitiveness. Whether the ADC seizes it as their defining agenda or the APC leverages it to revitalise national governance, this vision could catalyze the breakthrough Nigeria urgently needs.
An overview of the current economic climate highlights pressing challenges and opportunities. The landscape is shaped by multiple factors including global and domestic pressures.
Nigeria truly stands at a crossroads. Entrenched cycles of economic volatility, pervasive insecurity, and chronic underutilization of its vast human and natural resources have persisted under the current administration. The emergence of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a credible coalition and alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) represents a timely opportunity to reset Nigeria’s trajectory and engineer a breakthrough transformation akin to those witnessed in Singapore, China, Brazil, and other rising economies. To achieve this, the ADC must set a bold, pragmatic agenda that addresses foundational economic weaknesses, fosters sectoral reinvention, and positions Nigeria as a global competitor in the 21st century.
I Propose to Set This Out: as a “To-Do List.”
1. General State of the Economy: The Imperative for Structural Reform
Nigeria’s economic fundamentals remain fragile. With GDP growth averaging 2.7% in recent years—barely above population growth—unemployment and underemployment rates hover at over 33% and 22% respectively (NBS, 2024). Oil, which accounts for about 7% of GDP but over 85% of export revenues, exposes the nation to external shocks (World Bank, 2023). The ADC’s economic stewardship must prioritize diversification, productivity, and broad-based growth.
• Macroeconomic Stability: ADC must adopt prudent fiscal and monetary policies focused on inflation targeting, debt sustainability (public debt at 41% of GDP), and disciplined public expenditure (IMF, 2023).
• Human Capital & Innovation: Investments in health, education, and digital skills must be doubled. Nigeria lags behind peers like Malaysia and Turkey in education expenditure as a share of GDP (World Bank, 2023).
2. Tackling Insecurity: Global Best Practice Approaches
Security issues continue to impact economic activities and overall national stability. Addressing these concerns remains central to fostering growth and investor confidence. Insecurity – manifest in insurgency, banditry, and kidnapping – undermines economic activity, erodes investor confidence, and exacerbates poverty. ADC’s approach should encompass:
• Integrated Security Architecture: Establish a National Security Coordination Centre, leveraging intelligence sharing, modern surveillance technologies, and community policing (Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, 2021).
• Socio-Economic Inclusion: Address root causes of insecurity by targeting youth unemployment through skills training and social entrepreneurship (see Brazil’s Bolsa Família and Indonesia’s Kartu Prakerja).
• International Collaboration: Forge intelligence-sharing pacts with ECOWAS, the African Union, and global partners for coordinated anti-terrorism efforts.
3. Cushioning Cost-Push Inflation Induced by Subsidy Removal
With the removal of subsidies leading to cost push inflation, there is an urgent need for effective cushioning measures. These actions aim to mitigate the impact on citizens and maintain economic stability.
The removal of fuel subsidies, though fiscally advisable, has fuelled inflation, eroding household purchasing power. ADC should implement:
• Targeted Social Transfers: Expand conditional cash transfers to the poorest 40% of households, modelled after Brazil’s Bolsa Família, using transparent biometric systems (World Bank, 2022).
• Transport and Production Subsidies: Temporarily subsidize public transport and key agricultural inputs to reduce immediate inflationary pressure.
• Strategic Grain Reserves: Adopt best practices from India and China in maintaining and releasing grain reserves to stabilize food prices.
4. Exchange Stability: Prerequisite for Economic Confidence
Ensuring the stability of the exchange rate is critical. Volatility in currency markets affects trade, investment, and the general cost of living.
Exchange rate volatility undermines planning and investment. The ADC must: • Adopt a Managed Float Regime: Allow market forces to determine rates within a managed band, as Malaysia and Turkey have done successfully (IMF, 2021).
• Boost Non-Oil Exports: Incentivize agro-processing, ICT, and manufacturing exports to increase FX supply.
• FX Reserve Management: Enhance reserves through prudent oil revenue management and diaspora bonds, following China’s example.
5. Power Sector Transformation: Catalyst for Industrial Revolution
Reforming the power sector is seen as a pivotal driver for industrial revolution and promotes import substitution industrialisation strategies.
Reliable electricity supply is fundamental for industrialisation. Nigeria currently generates just 4,000–5,000 MW for over 200 million people, compared to South Africa’s 58,000 MW for 60 million (IEA, 2023). ADC must:
• Accelerate Power Privatization: Deepen reforms in generation and distribution, clarifying contracts and enforcing performance benchmarks.
• Expand Off-Grid Renewables: Support solar mini-grids and hybrid solutions for rural electrification, leveraging models from India and Kenya.
• Subsidize Industrial Tariffs: Implement phased tariff reliefs for manufacturing and SMEs to drive import substitution and job creation.
6. Oil Sector Transformation: Building Resilience and Value Addition
Transforming the oil sector is essential for economic diversification and increased efficiency. This sector remains a significant contributor to national revenues and development.
Nigeria must transition from crude oil dependency to value-added petrochemicals and refined products.
• Petrochemical Hubs: Establish industrial clusters for refining and chemical processing, modelled after Singapore’s Jurong Island and Saudi Arabia’s SABIC complexes.
• Gas-to-Power Prioritization: Develop domestic gas infrastructure to power industry and reduce flaring, drawing on Qatar’s LNG-led diversification.
• Transparent Contracting: Digitize licensing and royalties to reduce leakages and attract reputable global partners.
7. Cutting Edge Infrastructure: The Bedrock of Growth
Infrastructure investment – roads, rail, ports, ICT – is the backbone of sustained growth (see China’s Belt & Road).
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPP): Establish credible frameworks to attract private capital, as in Indonesia and Turkey.
• Smart Cities: Partner with global tech firms to pilot digital cities and e-governance.
• Logistics Corridors: Prioritize regional corridors connecting hinterlands to export gateways, as in Brazil’s “Arc of Development”.
8. Energy Transition: Pathway to Sustainable Prosperity
Transitioning the energy sector towards more sustainable sources is a key priority. This shift supports environmental goals and long-term economic resilience. The global pivot to renewables is both an opportunity and necessity.
• Solar and Wind Scale-Up: Target 30% renewable generation by 2030, leveraging the successes of Morocco and South Africa.
• Green Finance: Structure climate bonds and concessional facilities, learning from Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
• Local Content Development: Incentivize domestic manufacturing of solar panels and batteries, building a supply chain hub for West Africa.
9. Unlocking Marine and Blue Economy Potential
The development and utilization of marine and blue economy resources present opportunities for growth. This sector offers untapped potential for diversification and sustainable development.
Maritime resources – fishing, shipping, tourism – are underexploited. The sector contributes less than 2% to GDP, compared to 8-10% in countries like Indonesia and Turkey (UNCTAD, 2022).
• Modernise Ports: Automate port operations and expand capacity at Apapa and Onne, as Rotterdam and Singapore have done.
• Fisheries and Aquaculture: Develop integrated value chains exporting processed fish, following Norway’s model.
• Coastal Tourism: Partner with private investors and local communities to develop eco-friendly resorts and cruise terminals.
10. Mining Sector: Nigeria’s Untapped Wealth
Nigeria’s mineral endowments – gold, lithium, iron ore – remain underdeveloped. In comparison, mining’s share of GDP is less than 1%, while in South Africa it accounts for 8%, Botswana 16%, and Australia 10% (Statista, 2023). South Africa’s mining revenue was $24.5bn in 2022, Botswana’s $6bn, and Australia’s a staggering $250bn. European countries like Sweden and Finland also generate billions annually, underlining the transformative potential.
• Policy Certainty: Pass and enforce mining-friendly laws, clarify royalties, and guarantee security of tenure (PwC, 2022).
• Investment Promotion: Establish a one-stop investment agency, modeled after Brazil’s National Mining Agency and Australia’s Austrade, to attract majors like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore.
• Environmental Stewardship: Implement best-in-class ESG standards to assure global investors.
11. Lessons from the BRICS and Beyond: Nigeria’s Leapfrog Moment
The stories of Singapore, Malaysia, China, Brazil, Indonesia, and the Gulf states show that economic transformation is possible with:
• Visionary Leadership: Consistent long-term planning insulated from short-term politics (Singapore’s Economic Development Board; China’s Five-Year Plans).
• Institutional Reforms: Combat corruption, strengthen the judiciary, and promote transparency (see Qatar’s single window for investment).
• Export-Led Growth: Empower domestic firms to compete globally, with targeted support for high-potential sectors.
12. Unlocking Opportunities: Attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
To attract the likes of BHP Billiton and other global majors, Nigeria must:
• Guarantee Regulatory Certainty: Ensure clear, stable, and predictable regulatory environment.
• Develop World-Class Infrastructure: Invest in logistics, ICT, and energy to lower production costs.
• Prioritize Security: Provide guarantees for physical and legal security in mining zones.
• Tax Incentives and Royalties: Offer competitive fiscal terms, learning from
Botswana and Australia.
Final Words
The ADC’s agenda must be transformative, holistic, and implementable. By addressing economic fundamentals, embracing global best practices, investing in human capital, and unlocking Nigeria’s mineral and maritime wealth, the ADC can chart a path to inclusive prosperity. The next leap forward will not come from incremental change, but from bold, evidence-based reforms drawing on the best of global experience.
•Ashiekaa is an international consultant, policy analyst, oil & gas professional and President/CEO, Bel Air Capital Int’l Limited.
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