New research on globalisation during times of geopolitical tension

By Pune Media On Jul 25, 2025

New research on globalisation during times of geopolitical tension | CBS

25/07/2025 15:00

Recent years have seen a succession of global crises, each of which has led to temporary disruptions to trade around the world: Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic, the energy crisis and the recent spike in inflation, and others. The change in US policy on international trade this year is another such disruptor. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) wants to provide reliable, objective data to help tackle these disruptions. The goal is to provide government and wider society with relevant insights. We talked to Marjolijn Jaarsma – the programme manager for the Globalisation and Value Chains theme, as part of CBS’s multi-annual programme 2024-2028 – about some of the changes that we have witnessed.

In identifying the theme of Globalisation and Value Chains as one of the societal issues that the Netherlands is facing, CBS is responding to the external demand for more coherent statistical information on this theme. To do this, it is working both to create new information and to frame existing information in a more coherent manner. The world around us is becoming increasingly complex, as world events follow one another in rapid succession.

New projects

CBS began this new project portfolio after consulting a number of strategic partners, including De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Affairs. The portfolio will supplement existing programmes, as well as the earlier agreed covenant with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. ‘We have coordinated closely with external stakeholders to design a number of new projects and feasibility studies,’ explains Jaarsma. ‘Some of those initiatives are exploratory in nature or will require additional work. For instance, we will make a longer time series for the basic data on value chains. Next year, we wish to make progress on the framework of economic interdependencies. This will not only allow future researchers to report on changes over longer time periods, but it will also allow them to respond to recent developments more rapidly. We are also working to create more consistent data on various subjects, including multinational firms, which will allow us to make better comparisons.’

Identifying the chokepoints in value chains

Jaarsma explains that the goal is to identify potential chokepoints in both national and international value chains more easily, as well as the potential consequences for specific sectors, employment opportunities and regions. ‘One recent example involves China halting the export of rare earth minerals and other critical materials, such as gallium and germanium. China controls a large part of the global mining and processing of those resources, which are essential for the defence sector and the manufacture of electrical components like semiconductors, batteries and magnets, for example. CBS can help to shed a light on which sectors are the most dependent on these imports, and where the imports come from. We can also help to identify the characteristics of those sectors and whether the imports are meant for Dutch consumers or for the production of exports.’

Critical raw materials

Dependence on critical raw materials will be a particular focus. For the European Commission, access to a secure and sustainable supply of such materials is a top priority, as is reducing dependency on countries such as China. Semiconductors, magnets and batteries, for instance, are critical in our digitised world, and are also vital to the EU’s long-term goal of becoming a fully circular, climate-neutral economy by 2050. Jaarsma: ‘In these areas, we’re focusing on forming partnerships with knowledge institutes like the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), by contributing to their Netherlands Materials Observatory (NMO) for example. The information and knowledge made available through the NMO can help companies and policymakers to limit supply risks and reduce the vulnerability of value chains. CBS will publish an important report on critical raw materials towards the end of September. That will include the latest analysis of the Netherlands’ usage of these materials and the dependencies involved in production.

A key theme

In the past, we have already lived through crises that disrupted world trade temporarily. ‘There was the 2008–2009 financial crisis, for example,’ says Jaarsma. ‘However, the pace of developments over the past few years has increased dramatically. This includes the new stance of the US government on international trade and its potential ramifications. Interruptions to global trade can have an immediate impact in the Netherlands because nearly one-third of our prosperity is based on exports of goods and services. Not only that, but trade interruptions also affect our earning potential, competitiveness and business confidence. Previously, economists often focused on specialisation, efficiency and lower production costs, but now it seems as if everyone is concerned with tariffs, international dependencies and geopolitical tensions.’

Globalisation and value chains

The projects and activities undertaken in CBS’s multi-annual programme are designed to complement existing programmes and projects around Globalisation and Value Chains being undertaken by CBS’s Globalisation Expertise Centre. There is the Globalisation Covenant between CBS and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for instance, which provides a basis for empirical academic research and regular publications like the ‘Internationalisation Monitor’ and ‘Dutch Trade in Facts and Figures’. CBS also regularly carries out tailored research, often financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economic Affairs. ‘That research will remain important over the years to come,’ explains Jaarsma. ‘It will help us to better understand the latest developments in trade, both global and domestic.’

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