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Ryanair: Positive results driven by fare increase and Easter timing; challenges remain around tariffs, staffing, and Wizz Air’s turnaround. Intel earnings preview: Strength expected in Data Centre and AIsegment, but questions remain around foundry profitability and Alteraspin-out strategy. NielsenIQ: Recent EBITDA growth likely unsustainable after deep cutstrigger revenue headwinds; AI poses existential risk as NIQ risks becoming alow-margin data broker. Evoke: White Paper Outlines Clear Path to Market Share Gains AmidLagging Competition in AI Automation and Personalisation. J JD Wetherspoon: UK pub sector steadies after tough years;table-ordering app proves a clear advantage. Shawbrook Bank IPO: Starling merger unlikely as IPO outlook improves;SME retention tied to breaking team silos, shifting to solution-led sales. Lloyds Bank: <50% CIR Target by 2026 Achievable; Set to Benefit fromIncreased UK Defence and Infrastructure Spending; Outlook Tied to British Economy. Dior/LVMH: NatWest: Return to private ownership gives bank greater autonomy;Performance tied to UK economy; Diversifying income key to hedging againstmacro challeng Luxury industry hit by lack of creativity and consumerdesire; China remains a major unknown. After interviewing a number of executives in the airline space, Louis Knight, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Ryanair, informed by insights from industry experts:
Ryanair’s strong 1Q26 results are no doubt very positive for an industry going through a rough period characterised by tariff wars, macroeconomic shocks, conflict, strikes, and short staffing. However, it’s important not to get ahead of ourselves. The largest airline’s results were predominantly driven by a 21% increase in fares and the fact that the Easter break fell in April this year, as opposed to March last year. It’s also worth noting that fares were down 7% last year, so there is certainly some catch-up at play; and the timing of Easter isn’t beneficial for the full-year results.
Third Bridge experts point to Wizz Air, which is hot on Ryanair’s heels, is undertaking a turnaround plan, and remains strong in its core markets, particularly Eastern Europe. Broader challenges in aviation persist, including European ATC strikes, ongoing cost inflation, and aircraft delivery delays from Boeing and Airbus that are hampering growth plans. Wizz Air’s results on Thursday could be a useful indicator of whether Pratt & Whitney have their engine quality issues under control.
In the semiconductor sector, William McGonigle, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Intel, which is poised to show strength in its Data Center and AI (DCAI) segment this quarter, though questions remain around foundry profitability and the strategic implications of the Altera spin-out. Our experts noted that Gaudi 3 has a much bigger ecosystem in terms of enablement and suggested customer demand is much more than for Gaudi 2. Improved software support and wider ODM availability are expected to contribute to increased traction in AI inference workloads.
Additionally, Granite Rapids CPUs are seeing favorable momentum, offering higher PCI and memory support plus additional AI features, with Intel benefiting from long-standing OEM partnerships and custom SKUs for hyperscalers.
That said, Intel’s free cash flow remains under pressure, and margin expansion could prove elusive. Our experts emphasized that the company’s 2027 foundry breakeven target hinges more on internal volume rebound than external customer wins. While Intel’s 18A process is viewed as technologically competitive, execution risk lingers due to past missteps and a reputational problem in manufacturing reliability.
Regarding the Altera spin-out, our experts suggested Intel harvested Altera as a cash cow, underinvesting in R&D while shifting its focus to cloud and AI customers at the expense of embedded and comms segments. As Altera moves production from TSMC to Intel Foundry, gross margins are expected to deteriorate unless subsidized, and the outlook for design win momentum appears weak.
Investors should watch for: DCAI growth trends, Xeon + Gaudi traction, 18A execution updates, and signals on Intel Foundry’s path to profitability.
Moving to the media market, John Conca, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding NielsenIQ. Our experts say NielsenIQ’s recent EBITDA growth is likely unsustainable, as the company cut too deeply in preparation for its IPO. This could lead to a revenue headwind of around 3% within 6–12 months if not addressed through new hiring, which would, in turn, increase costs.
AI presents a long-term existential disintermediation risk to NIQ, potentially relegating it to a low-margin data broker rather than the insights and solutions model it operates today.
Future growth will likely be driven inorganically, and the company may struggle to replicate the approximately 5% organic growth achieved in FY24, making the revenue headwinds even more concerning.
In the gaming space, Alex Doran, Analyst at Third Bridge comments on Evoke. These are informed by the insights we’re hearing from industry experts:
Our experts say the white paper is finally creating a level playing field in UK gaming, and Evoke stands ready to benefit. Smaller and mid-sized operators are struggling under the cost of compliance, and many may exit. This shift gives major players like Evoke a clear path to gain market share over the next one to two years from small-mid sized operators.
The omnichannel strength of William Hill is emerging as a major asset for Evoke. Our experts see the ability to drive customers from retail into online and vice versa as a cost-effective way to increase player value while reducing acquisition costs.
Evoke has lagged competitors in AI-driven automation and personalisation but is now closing the gap, which our experts view as essential for long-term competitiveness. This catch-up in technology will simplify user journeys, enhance customer experience, and help Evoke appeal to the recreational, mass-market players that now dominate the UK landscape. Product innovation remains a key area where Evoke must accelerate.
Sports will remain a cost-effective acquisition channel for the 888 brand, but our experts do not see the business evolving into a major sports operator, as casino remains its core DNA. However, sports will continue to play an important role in driving new customer acquisition at a lower cost.
In the UK pub market, Alex Doran, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding JD Wetherspoon. Our experts say Wetherspoon is in a strong position as the UK pub sector steadies after a tough few years. The industry should see margin pressures ease slightly over time as operators improve labour efficiencies and embrace digital tools, but customers are still careful about spending. For Wetherspoon, its position as a value-led, wet-led operator with strong tech adoption continues to underpin its resilience.
Wetherspoon’s app for ordering and paying at the table has become a clear advantage. Customers like seeing what they are spending, and this helps them feel they are getting value for money.
One thing our experts highlight is how Wetherspoon keeps its pubs open even during quiet times, including breakfast and early week days. While many operators cut hours to save costs, Wetherspoon has stuck to being open, building trust with customers who know they can rely on the brand any day of the week. This has helped the business gain market share.
Max Harper, Analyst at Third Bridge comments on Shawbrook bank IPO. A merger with Starling had previously been explored, with reports suggesting a potential £5bn deal. The tie-up would have combined Shawbrook’s specialist lending capabilities with Starling’s digital platform, offering synergies, access to new markets and operational efficiencies. However, the deal now appears unlikely to progress. Meanwhile, sentiment around IPOs has improved, with companies like CFC and Visma exploring listings. With a more favourable environment and potential for a higher valuation, Starling may now revisit a standalone IPO path.
SME retention can be increased by removing barriers around teams being siloed and moving to a solution seller over a product seller. Starling merger would offer clearing facilities, allowing for the provision of working capital and debt facilities. At some point, SME “should exceed the real estate book.
Breakeven time typically is c12-18 months, although products such as speciality finance can be sub-12, whereas SME digital lending can be over 24 months due to competition.
Shawbrook’s cost of risk could improve to 30bps from 34bps. Proactive risk management and focus on higher-quality deals support this trend.
Max Harper, also writes about Lloyds Banking Group: Lloyds reported strong H1 results, with an underlying profit of £3.561 billion, which was £275 million ahead of consensus. This was primarily driven by lower-than-anticipated costs and a reduced impairment charge. Experts we have spoken to suggest that its cost:income ratio (CIR) target of <50% by 2026 should be achievable and could be accelerated by leveraging Lloyds’ large customer database.
Moves in the mass affluent segment appear to be working, with mass affluent mortgage share up 4 percentage points year-on-year and the launch of Lloyds Premier. This has been an area of historic weakness for Lloyds. Our experts suggest that Jo Harris’s departure is not impacting strategy and that Lloyds, as the largest retail bank in the UK, should focus on up-tiering customers. Our experts also suggest the partnership with Schroders is sensible, as it allows Lloyds to focus on other areas while partnering with a similar heritage brand.
They also highlight that Lloyds is well-positioned to benefit from increased UK defence and infrastructure spending, given its strength in project finance. Lloyds Development Capital remains a unique asset among its peers and stands to gain from this trend.
Our experts suggest that future results are strongly linked to the British economy, so if the British economy does well, Lloyds should do well. The Bank of England’s current stable interest rate policy is unlikely to significantly impact Lloyds’ dynamic hedging strategy, the primary risk for the bank is stagflation. A combination of a slowing economy and persistently high inflation would create a double-edged sword effect, simultaneously reducing appetite for new lending while interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation could turn the bank’s hedge into a source of financial loss.
Regarding NatWest: A decent set of results that topped expectations. Experts we’ve spoken to suggest the outlook is positive, with the return to private ownership giving the bank greater autonomy and more strategic options. This includes potential acquisitions that weren’t possible previously, as highlighted by their recent deals for Metro Bank’s mortgage book and the acquisition of Sainsbury’s Bank.
Similar to Lloyds, its performance is closely tied to the UK economy. NatWest has a strong mid-market offering that generally outperforms and maintains a good focus on customer acquisition and quality. Hitting their increased guidance, relies on performance in the British economy, and continued product innovation, such as their rollout of Mettle, which should increase retention, and take the battle to fintechs, such as Revolut.
The bank’s income is reliant on Net Interest Income (NII). Diversifying into wealth management, insurance, and payment processing are key areas for expanding other revenue streams and hedging against macroeconomic challenges. Experts suggest its cross-selling capabilities are underexploited compared to peers like Barclays and Lloyds, which presents a significant opportunity for revenue growth. Their partnership with OpenAI should support this, enabling more targeted, AI-driven customer insights.
Finally, Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge comments on Dior/LVMH. Dior stands at a peculiar moment within the luxury landscape as the industry faces a structural crisis driven by consumer fatigue and a perceived lack of creativity. Our experts say there is no longer the same level of desire for many products across the market, pushing all major brands to change creative direction in search of relevance. Dior is no different, with both its men’s and women’s divisions under new creative leadership.
Tariff pressures are likely to push Dior prices up by five to ten percent in the United States, but our experts note that the brand is positioned to offset this impact by leveraging American tourist spending in Europe.
China remains a significant unknown for Dior, not only because of macroeconomic conditions but also due to rapidly changing consumer habits. Our experts emphasize that Chinese customers are shifting from conspicuous logo-driven purchases to quieter expressions of luxury, which will require brands like Dior to rethink how they engage and localize their presence in this key market.
Our experts say Dior under JW Anderson is moving away from flashy marketing and celebrity hype, focusing instead on making the brand culturally relevant. In the past, Dior relied on big events and slogans to drive growth, but Anderson plans to build real substance into products that connect with today’s customers who want authenticity, not just logos.
Third Bridge is a global primary research firm that interviews more than 6,000 internationally recognised industry experts and business leaders a year to compile 360-degree market intelligence for institutional investors. www.thirdbridge.com
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