US stock futures surge on Fed optimism: US stock market futures surge as Fed rate cut bets soar — Tesla, Apple, Nvidia lead urgent tech rally

U.S. stock futures were firmly higher on Wednesday, August 13, 2025, as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September policy meeting. The optimism comes on the heels of July’s inflation report, which showed a modest rise in core prices but still signaled that overall price pressures remain under control. Futures markets are now pricing in a 96.2% probability of a 25 basis point cut next month.

Why are markets rallying today?

The driver is clear: fresh inflation data has sharpened the odds of a rate cut to near certainty. July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, down from 2.8% in June and slightly below the 2.8% consensus forecast. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, edged higher by 0.2% month-over-month, but the headline figure’s mild pullback was enough to reassure markets that price pressures aren’t reaccelerating.

According to CME FedWatch data, futures traders are now pricing in a 94% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September meeting, up from 86% just a day earlier. “This CPI print wasn’t perfect, but it didn’t have to be,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “It was soft enough to keep the rate-cut door wide open.”

Key indices and sector performance

Major U.S. stock futures were in positive territory in early trading:

• S&P 500 Futures: +0.52%, edging closer to record highs.
• Nasdaq 100 Futures: +1.12%, fueled by strength in technology shares.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures: +0.19%, supported by gains in rate-sensitive and industrial sectors.

This marks a continuation of the week’s rally, driven by cooler-than-expected inflation data and signs that the Fed is preparing to ease policy.

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Inflation data and Fed policy outlook

July’s Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation steady at 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy, accelerated to 3.1%. It was the second consecutive monthly increase in the core measure, adding some complexity to the Fed’s balancing act between taming inflation and supporting an economy showing pockets of weakness in the labor market. Despite the uptick, traders remain convinced that the Fed will deliver a rate cut on September 17, a move expected to support growth and ease financial conditions.

• Tesla (TSLA): At $340.84, Tesla sits just above several technical buy zones. Yesterday’s rally wasn’t just about numbers—it came after Elon Musk quietly confirmed the Dojo supercomputer project was shelved in favor of a new AI6 chip strategy developed with Samsung. That strategic pivot lit a spark in investor optimism.
• Apple (AAPL): Trading at $229.65, Apple shows a modest rebound. Still, the year-to-date picture remains challenging, with concern around AI innovation and an antitrust legal backdrop weighing on sentiment.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Holding steady at $183.16, Nvidia is navigating a complex scenario. The company is advancing a U.S. government-backed deal to resume AI chip sales to China—but with a 15% revenue-sharing clause that could mean a multi-billion-dollar remittance annually. Analysts are watching warily, as this agreement involves both economic opportunity and geopolitical risks.

Sector-specific trends

Technology continues to lead the market higher, with the Nasdaq outperforming other indices. Growth-oriented sectors tend to benefit the most when borrowing costs fall, and the tech space is seeing additional tailwinds from recent strong earnings reports, as well as ongoing demand for artificial intelligence, cloud services, and advanced semiconductor chips.

Global markets are feeding the optimism

The rally isn’t isolated to the U.S. European indexes — including Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 — were both up more than 1% by midday local time. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.2% higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.9%, buoyed by renewed hopes that U.S. rate cuts could ease global funding pressures.

Commodity markets mirrored the risk-on tone. Brent crude edged above $83 per barrel, gold rebounded toward $2,470 an ounce, and copper prices ticked higher, reflecting improved industrial demand sentiment.

What does this mean for the average investor?

If the Fed cuts rates in September, borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards could start easing as early as Q4. For equity investors, lower rates typically mean a lower discount rate on future earnings, which tends to boost valuations — especially for growth-heavy tech stocks.

That said, seasoned traders will be watching for two risks in the weeks ahead:

1. A too-hot August jobs report that could challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt.
2. Corporate earnings guidance that fails to match the market’s lofty expectations.

“The market is already pricing perfection,” noted Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Any stumble — in data or in earnings — could trigger a quick shakeout.”

A September rate cut could provide further upside for growth stocks, housing-related companies, and the consumer discretionary sector. However, seasoned investors are cautioning against abandoning defensive positions, given the potential for late-summer volatility and lingering macroeconomic risks. Lower bond yields have also increased the appeal of dividend-paying stocks and fixed-income assets, which could see renewed inflows if rate cuts materialize.

Looking ahead

The next several weeks will be critical, with markets closely watching data on consumer spending, jobs, and industrial output. Any sign of accelerating inflation or a sharper economic slowdown could shift sentiment quickly. For now, futures suggest a solid open for U.S. equities, supported by steady inflation, growing confidence in Fed easing, and a calmer geopolitical backdrop.

The tone heading into mid-August remains decisively bullish — but with eyes wide open to potential surprises before the Fed’s September decision.

Q1: Why are US stock futures rising today?
They’re climbing on expectations of a September Fed rate cut.

Q2: Which sectors are leading the US stock futures rally?
Technology and growth-oriented stocks are driving the gains.

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