U.S. Merger and Aquisition Activity Surges: H2 2025 Outlook

The lazy days of summer seem to be behind us as merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is getting a jump start. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal cites late July/early August as having “the highest-volume week for mergers and acquisitions for U.S. companies since 2021, according to LSEG.” This is an unexpected, but welcome boom in a typically a slow time of year. Anecdotally, I can share that as a practicing lawyer in the Silicon Valley these past 6 weeks, like many of my colleagues, it seems like every time I look up, another 30 emails have refilled my inbox, and it’s a race to keep up. 

This flurry of activity is due to the cloud of uncertainty starting to clear. In addition to the economy remaining relatively stable and keeping a recession at bay, there is also hope that the Fed could lower interest rates in September, and some trade deals are moving forward. This is all coupled with the fact that deals are actually going through in this administration which seems to be more focused on finding a way forward instead of shutting them down from the start.

Looking Ahead: What the Experts are Saying

So, as we hit the midpoint of August, and fall is clearly in our sights, will this momentum continue? Below we look at some of the H2 2025 outlooks from the experts.

According to the Goldman Sachs Global M&A 2H 2025 Outlook, companies are adopting more of a “change is a constant” mindset, and while there will still be uncertainty in the second half of this year, “many companies are seizing the opportunity to reevaluate their portfolios and strategic ambitions with newfound perspectives.” The markets are adjusting to the increased volatility we have experienced this year, and while we aren’t out of the woods yet on uncertainty, we are learning to operate within it.

 PWC’s 2025 Mid-Year Outlook for M&A echoes this sentiment, noting that when companies accept the uncertainty, they can begin to look for ways to plan and prepare, instead of waiting around for the dust to settle. They also point to artificial intelligence (AI) as being a major disruptor for M&A in the coming months, presenting a significant opportunity for buyers to “harness new technologies to innovate and gain a competitive edge.” They are seeing a “reassessment of traditional assets through an AI lens,” and they say the next six to 12 months will be critical as companies look to reposition themselves to capitalize on this wave of innovation.

The lexicon paradigm has shifted from “uncertainty” in the first half of the year to “cautious optimism” as we look to the rest of 2025. CSC says analysts are expecting a “measured revival” in M&A activity later this year in both volume and deal size. They see private equity (PE) firms as leading the way, with a focus on middle-market and more sector-specific transactions. While they say dealmakers will need to stay agile, we are starting to see the ingredients needed to make a rebound happen. As conditions continue to improve, those companies who have stayed on the sidelines will increasingly find the confidence to execute deals.

As a Silicon Valley attorney immersed in the world of startups, venture capital, private equity, and smart exits, I see this fall, particularly Q4, as the moment when deals should finally start to crystallize. The clouds are dissipating, and companies that once paused or reworked their exit strategies, whether through M&A or IPO, are now exploring creative, sometimes unconventional, paths to make them happen. Momentum is building, and those prepared to act decisively in the coming months will be best positioned to turn opportunity into lasting success.

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