India’s digital edge, China’s manufacturing, Russia’s energy: A new axis of global growth

In the corridors of power from Beijing to Moscow to New Delhi, a strategic convergence is reshaping the world’s economic architecture.

What appears as diplomatic pleasantries masks one of the most consequential trade realignments of our time.

And then, as if hurled by the hand of fate itself, a headline emerges—a piece of news that chills my spine from head to toe: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to set foot in China for the SCO Summit, his first visit in seven long years. A seismic return.

But it’s what lies beneath the diplomatic veneer that unsettles the ground—the anticipated bilateral ties with President Xi Jinping, unfolding in the shadow of escalating tensions with Washington over trade tariffs and Russian oil. At that moment, a grim clarity takes shape.

This isn’t routine diplomacy. It’s the stealthy forging of a strategic triad—a new economic partnership assembling beneath the radar.

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In a flashback moment, I recollected a series of events underpinning this sequence for the past year. As Arthur Brisbane once said, “A picture is worth a thousand words.”On September 12, 2024, Indian envoy Doval delivered PM Modi’s Ukraine reflections in St. Petersburg, signaling new diplomatic momentum beneath the façade of peace talks. Global headlines touted potential breakthroughs, but the real game involved carefully planned strategic shifts.Following the Modi–Putin meeting on October 22, 2024, policies included expanding Rupee Vostro accounts for Rupee–Ruble settlements (November 2024), an import tax rebate on Russian Urals, and a cross-border digital QR payment pilot with Russia–China (May 2025). Banking and fintech became central instruments for sanction-proofing and trade expansion.By July 24, 2025, India resumed tourist visas for Chinese nationals and enabled FDI, fintech approvals, and auto-approval for Chinese tech investments after the October 23, 2024, Modi–Xi meeting.

As Jaishankar met Xi in Beijing (July 15, 2025) with $127.7B trade at stake, both powers cut bureaucratic hurdles to keep economic ties thriving.

The foundation of the India–China relationship has been shaky and fraught with mistrust for the last sixty years, since the war of 1962. However, every statement by authorities from both sides has been affirmative, with clear signs of rapprochement. Russia is playing an active role in this.

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Is the trinity of a new economic axis in the making: A $54 trillion global powerhouse?

In a world of 8.2 billion people and $173 trillion in economic firepower, three ancient titans have risen to dominate the global stage—China, India, and Russia.

Together, they command $53.9 trillion in GDP (PPP)—nearly one-third of the planet’s total economic output. Picture three mighty rivers of power and ambition, merging into a single, unstoppable force.

Their combined exports? $5.09 trillion—almost one-fifth of global merchandise exports—flowing through continents, fueling global trade, connecting billions through innovation, technology, and industry.

With $4.7 trillion in foreign reserves—38% of the world’s safety net—they’ve built an economic fortress, unshakable even in the fiercest storms. And with 3.1 billion citizens, representing 37.8% of the total population, they form the largest, hungriest consumer market in human history.

These nations aren’t just growing. They’re flexing. $549 billion in military spending—20.2% of the world’s defense budget. 35% of global energy consumption—powering their rise and lighting the way for others. This isn’t data.

Its destiny: the rise of three civilizations, echoing through markets, megacities, and minds—the new heartbeat of the global economy.

As days pass, we are weaving a new history in the global economic order. Each nation brings unique strengths to this trinity: China’s manufacturing dominance, Russia’s energy supremacy, and India’s service economy with vast untapped markets.

This convergence represents more than mere trade statistics. It embodies a fundamental shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order, where traditional Western-controlled trade routes face unprecedented competition from Eurasian alternatives.

The consequence of shifting trade to respective home currencies is going to be momentous for trade and financial markets, reducing reliance on the US dollar manifold.

As global power dynamics pivot toward multipolarity, the convergence of India, China, and Russia reflects not just a pragmatic alignment of interests but the emergence of a new economic geometry in Eurasia.

While China brings manufacturing scale and Russia provides energy depth, it is India’s digital infrastructure, service-sector strength, and strategic market size that increasingly anchor this triad.

The shift away from dollar-dominated systems toward localized trade and payment frameworks signals more than economic diversification—it marks a recalibration of global trade norms.

India, once peripheral to global value chains, is now positioned not merely as a participant but as a platform—reshaping routes, redefining rules, and recalibrating regional power balances in its favor.

Is this trinity a precursor to India’s plug into Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?

Today, India faces a strategic transport bottleneck that costs billions annually. The traditional Suez Canal route takes 45–60 days and covers 8,700 nautical miles to reach Russian and Central Asian markets.

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), though shorter at 3,000 km, remains blocked for India due to sovereignty concerns over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

These limitations force India to rely on expensive, time-consuming routes that reduce competitiveness. The country began work on the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a 7,200 km multimodal network that cuts transit time to 25–30 days and reduces costs by 30% compared to traditional routes. However, geopolitical and economic frictions remain.

This newfound partnership could enable India to plug into China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while aligning India’s “Act East” policy to create transnational corridors linking Chinese manufacturing hubs with Indian ports and markets.

Participating in joint railroad and port projects reduces logistics costs for Chinese exports into South Asia and beyond.

Collaboration on renewable-energy infrastructure (solar parks, wind farms) helps China export equipment while improving India’s energy mix and grid stability.

Today, Russian oil forms 36% of India’s crude imports ($67.2B, up from less than 2%), powering $84.96B in petroleum exports (12.59% global share).

Direct access to Kazakhstan (43% of global uranium output) and Uzbekistan supports India’s goal of tripling nuclear capacity by 2032, while Turkmenistan’s 13.6 TCM gas reserves offer long-term pipeline potential. This energy-security triangle with Russia and Central Asia reduces dependency on the Middle East.

Central Asia represents a largely untapped market for Indian goods and services. The region’s combined GDP exceeds $300 billion, with significant demand for Indian pharmaceuticals, textiles, agricultural products, and technology services.

However, current trade routes through Iran’s Chabahar Port, while strategically important, remain limited in capacity and efficiency compared to potential BRI corridors.

India’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative could enhance its competitive position by:

• Reducing logistics costs by 20–30%
• Improving manufacturing competitiveness through better infrastructure
• Expanding market access to 140+ countries in the BRI network
• Leveraging India’s strengths in services and technology

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Mutual Leverage: The Economics of dependency in the Sino-Indian partnership

The servicification revolution: manufacturing firms are combining services as embedded components in product sales.

Manufacturers worldwide are increasingly adopting “servicification” strategies, where services account for 26–33% of manufacturing export value in developing economies.

This transformation recognizes that modern consumers don’t just buy products—they purchase solutions that combine hardware with supporting services.

The integration of India’s service-sector exports with China’s manufacturing capabilities represents a transformative opportunity worth over $3 trillion in combined export potential.

This approach leverages the natural complementarity between India’s strength in knowledge-intensive services and China’s dominance in manufacturing scale and efficiency.

Renaissance of a new partnership and global order

The convergence of China, Russia, and India represents more than an economic alliance—it embodies the emergence of a new world order where Eurasian powers shape global trade flows.

Russia will supply cheap energy and allied resources to its economic partners. China will enhance the game by investing in Indian entities, addressing both domestic and global markets.

India, long excluded from the global export ecosystem, is set to rejoin it. The narrative of the future is shifting to “India+2” rather than “China+1.”

Growing up, I always enjoyed multi starrer movies. Now, the time has come to watch another one.

(The author, Manish Bhandari is the CEO at Vallum Capital, based in Mumbai)

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