Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 16, 2025

By Pune Media On Sep 16, 2025

Brazil’s financial markets are navigating a complex environment shaped by domestic economic slowdown and global monetary policy shifts.

The IBC-Br Economic Activity Index contracted by 0.5% in July, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% decline, marking the third consecutive monthly drop and signaling weakening economic momentum.

Meanwhile, Brazil is adopting Europe’s playbook to shield its banks from potential U.S. sanctions, a strategic move to safeguard financial stability amid geopolitical tensions.

These developments, combined with anticipation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, set the stage for heightened market sensitivity as today’s economic agenda unfolds.

Economic Agenda for September 16, 2025

Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)

8:00 AM BRT – Unemployment Rate (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 5.7%, Previous 5.8%. Tracks labor market health, critical for consumer spending and economic recovery.

Implication: A lower unemployment rate could signal improving domestic demand, supporting retail and consumer sectors, while a higher rate may pressure the Central Bank to maintain high Selic rates (15%) to curb inflation, impacting borrowing costs.

Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for September 16, 2025. (Photo Internet reproduction)

United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)

8:30 AM BRT – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.4%, Previous 0.3%. Measures retail sales excluding volatile items.
8:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.5%. Tracks overall consumer spending.
8:30 AM BRT – Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 0.2%. Gauges core retail trends.
8:30 AM BRT – Export Price Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.1%, Previous 0.1%. Tracks export price changes.
8:30 AM BRT – Import Price Index (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -0.2%, Previous 0.4%. Measures import price trends.
9:15 AM BRT – Capacity Utilization Rate (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 77.4%, Previous 77.5%. Reflects industrial output efficiency.
9:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.0%, Previous -0.1%. Tracks manufacturing output.
10:00 AM BRT – Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.2%, Previous 0.2%. Signals supply chain dynamics.
10:00 AM BRT – NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 33, Previous 32. Gauges housing sector confidence.
12:30 PM BRT – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Actual TBD, Consensus 3.1%, Previous 3.1%. Provides real-time GDP estimates.

Implication: U.S. retail and industrial data will influence expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut (widely expected at 25 bps), impacting global capital flows and Brazil’s commodity exports.

Strong data could bolster demand for Brazil’s oil and agricultural goods, while weak figures may exacerbate pressures from U.S. tariffs.

Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)

2:00 AM BRT – UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jul): Actual 4.8%, Consensus 4.8%, Previous 5.0%. Tracks wage growth.
2:00 AM BRT – UK Unemployment Rate (Jul): Actual 4.7%, Consensus 4.7%, Previous 4.7%. Measures labor market health.
4:00 AM BRT – Italian CPI (MoM) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.1%, Previous 0.4%. Tracks monthly consumer price changes.
4:00 AM BRT – Italian CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 1.6%, Previous 1.6%. Measures annual inflation.
5:00 AM BRT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep): Actual TBD, Consensus 25.3, Previous 34.7. Gauges economic outlook.
5:00 AM BRT – Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Actual TBD, Consensus 0.4%, Previous -1.3%. Tracks manufacturing output.
8:00 AM BRT – German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides ECB policy insights.

Implication: European industrial and inflation data will influence demand for Brazil’s steel and soybean exports. Weak Eurozone production or hawkish ECB signals could reduce export revenues, compounding U.S. tariff pressures.

Other Countries

Mexico (11th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.00 trillion)

All Day – Independence Day Holiday: Markets closed, limiting trading activity.

Implication: Mexico’s market closure may reduce Mercosur trade volatility, but U.S. data will still influence the peso-real pair.

Canada

8:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus 2.0%, Previous 1.7%. Tracks annual inflation.
8:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous 2.6%. Measures core inflation trends.

Implication: Canadian inflation data could signal commodity demand, impacting Brazil’s oil and agricultural exports.

Japan (3rd Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$4.10 trillion)

7:50 PM BRT – Exports (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -1.9%, Previous -2.6%. Tracks export growth.
7:50 PM BRT – Imports (YoY) (Aug): Actual TBD, Consensus -4.2%, Previous -7.4%. Measures import trends.

Implication: Japanese trade data could signal demand for Brazil’s steel and agricultural exports.

Australia

8:00 PM BRT – RBA Assistant Governor Jones Speaks: Actual TBD, Consensus TBD, Previous TBD. Provides monetary policy signals.

Implication: Australian policy signals may influence Asia-Pacific commodity demand, affecting Brazil’s agricultural exports.

Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s unemployment data will clarify labor market trends, critical for consumer resilience amid high Selic rates and a slowing economy.

U.S. retail and industrial data will shape Fed rate cut expectations, influencing global capital flows and Brazil’s commodity exports. European and Canadian indicators will drive trade demand, while Mexico’s holiday may temper regional volatility.

Geopolitical risks, including Brazil’s banking shield against U.S. sanctions and export diversification to China and Argentina, add complexity to market outlooks.

Brazil’s Markets Yesterday

Official market reports confirm the Ibovespa index closed at 143,546.58 points on September 15, 2025, up 0.9%, reaching new historical highs.

Trading volume was robust, driven by anticipation of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut of 25 basis points from the 4.25–4.50% range, expected at the September 16–17 meeting. Investors focused on lower global borrowing costs, boosting Brazilian firms’ access to capital for expansion.

However, the IBC-Br Economic Activity Index fell 0.5% in July, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, signaling a third consecutive monthly contraction and curbing inflation pressures, which may pave the way for Selic rate cuts in early 2026.

Technical analysis shows the Ibovespa testing resistance at 144,000, with RSI at 58, indicating sustained but cautious momentum.

U.S. Markets Yesterday

The S&P 500 rose 0.47% to a record 6,615.28, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.40% to a new high of 22,141.10, driven by technology and consumer discretionary sectors, while the Dow Jones fell 0.60% to 45,834.22.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged up 0.34% to 14.76, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16–17 meeting, where a 25 basis-point rate cut is widely anticipated. Sector performance was mixed, with healthcare and industrials lagging, while tech led gains.

Mexico’s Market Yesterday

Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC index rose to a record high, supported by a strong peso at 18.50 per dollar and institutional buying.

The market’s momentum reflects optimism about U.S. demand and stable monetary policy, though trading was quieter ahead of the Independence Day holiday on September 16.

Argentina’s Market Yesterday

The S&P Merval plummeted 11.2% to 1,500,000, driven by renewed political uncertainty and capital flight.

The peso weakened to ARS 1,450 per dollar (blue at 1,410), with country risk rising to 950 basis points. Financial and energy stocks led losses, with technicals showing oversold conditions and RSI below 28.

Colombia’s Market Yesterday

The COLCAP index gained 0.4% to 1,884.10, supported by a stable peso at 3,900 per dollar and expectations of U.S. rate cuts. Institutional flows into energy and financials drove gains, with inflation at 5.0% suggesting steady policy rates. Technicals indicate potential to test 1,900.

Chile’s Market Yesterday

The IPSA fell 0.8% to 8,917.29, with shipping stocks soaring 3.7% while mining giants slumped due to flat copper prices at $4.50/lb.

The peso weakened to 975 per dollar, with markets eyeing a potential 25 bps rate cut to 4.25%. Technicals show RSI at 45, signaling neutral momentum.

Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real closed at 5.410 per dollar on September 15, 2025, slightly stronger due to a weaker DXY (down 0.3% to 96.85) and expectations of U.S. rate cuts.

Brazil’s Central Bank plans to roll over 40,000 FX swaps to maintain currency stability amid geopolitical risks, including U.S. sanction concerns.

Technicals show RSI at 47, with support at 5.38 and resistance at 5.43. Export diversification to China and Argentina has cushioned declines in U.S. trade.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin consolidated at $111,500 on September 15, 2025, up 0.5%, with a market cap of $3.92 trillion and 57% dominance. Anticipation of a U.S. rate cut supported sentiment, though Brazil’s fintech sector remains cautious due to domestic economic slowdown.

Technicals show Bitcoin range-bound between $111,000–$112,500, with RSI at 49. U.S. retail data today will influence crypto flows.

Industry Outlook

Brazil’s commodity-driven economy faces challenges from a 0.5% IBC-Br contraction in July, high 15% Selic rates, and geopolitical risks from potential U.S. sanctions.

The banking sector’s adoption of European strategies to shield against sanctions highlights financial resilience efforts. Export diversification to China and Argentina has mitigated U.S. trade declines, supporting agribusiness and energy sectors.

Today’s unemployment rate (8:00 AM BRT), U.S. retail sales (8:30 AM BRT), and Eurozone industrial production (5:00 AM BRT) will shape outlooks for consumer, energy, and industrial sectors.

Lower borrowing costs from expected U.S. rate cuts could support Brazilian firms, but domestic slowdown risks persist.

Key Developments

Economic Slowdown: The IBC-Br index’s 0.5% drop in July, worse than the expected 0.2%, signals a third consecutive monthly decline, easing inflation but raising concerns about growth.

Banking Sector Resilience: Brazil’s adoption of Europe’s banking shield strategy aims to protect financial institutions from U.S. sanctions, ensuring stability amid geopolitical tensions.

Export Diversification: Increased trade with China and Argentina has offset declines in U.S. exports, supporting Brazil’s agribusiness and energy sectors.

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