Plummeting bus ridership, explosion of cars, Delhi’s mobility crisis is driving up winter pollution

New Delhi: The capital is facing a mobility crisis, and it is choking the city. An explosion of private vehicles on streets and declining bus ridership levels are playing a role in the annual winter pollution problem, according to the latest report by the Delhi-based climate think tank, Center for Science and Environment (CSE).

Vehicular emissions account for 50 percent of the air pollution in Delhi.

At 25 lakh between 2022 and 2023, the average daily passengers riding Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) buses have significantly declined by nearly 45% over the last ten years. This decline coincides with an increase in average winter PM2.5 concentrations, which reached their highest levels between 2023 and 2024, an analysis by climate scientists at CSE has shown.

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According to the Economic Survey of Government of the National Capital Territory of Delhi (GNCTD), between 2012 and 2013, DTC bus services, as the city’s preferred mode of transport, recorded a daily average ridership of 46.77 lakh. However, during the COVID-19 years, ridership plummeted to 12.24 lakh per day and has since struggled to recover. The current level is 25 percent below the pre-pandemic levels.

The CSE analysis, using data from IIT Delhi, the National Institute of Urban Affairs and the GNCTD, showed a significant shift towards private vehicles from 2007 to 2018. The share of two-wheelers and four-wheelers rose from 38 percent to 49 percent in 2018.

Whereas the CSE report noted a 12 percent increase in Metro ridership, an IIT-D report indicates the city still falls short of its projected Metro ridership targets by 47.45%.

Several factors deter Delhi’s daily commuters from using public transport—unreliable service, limited accessibility, and inconvenience.

An independent expert observed that Delhi’s bus users have shifted to privately owned vehicles or the Metro depending on their financial means.

“Captive users, those with no other choice, are compelled to use the Metro, even when it’s not a practical option due to hidden time costs, associated with escalations, interchanges, last-mile connectivity, and security checks,” said Amit Bhatt, managing director (India) at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

On the other hand, 1.1 million vehicles enter and exit the city daily, significantly affecting pollution levels.

“In the last five years, the winter average of PM2.5 concentration was the highest in 2023-24 at 189 µg/m3. There is a 9 percent increase in the winter average concentration in 2023-24 compared to 2019-20. This upward trend needs immediate action,” said the CSE report, which analysed particulate matter pollution, car use, and public transport trends.

That said, there was a 7 percent improvement in the PM2.5 levels in 2023 compared to 2019. In winter, peak PM2.5 levels reduced by nearly 35% in 2023-24 compared to 2019-20.

But that is not enough. The CSE report said Delhi requires another 60 percent reduction to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for PM2.5. Meanwhile, nitrogen oxides (NOx), released by vehicles, pose an added risk.

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Why bus ridership is declining

According to the CSE, Delhi boasts an extensive bus network. Based on ward-wise population and the locations of routes and bus stations, nearly 57 percent of Delhi’s population lives within a five-minute walk of a bus stop and 83 percent within a distance that can be covered in five minutes by cycle. Yet, bus ridership remains lower than anticipated.

Analysing this, the CSE has found that long wait times and low bus frequency make it difficult for daily commuters to rely on the modernised bus transit system. Fewer than 1 percent of bus stops have wait times under 10 minutes.

In contrast, private vehicles are flexible and save time and money. Unlike in Delhi, where the reliance on private vehicles is high, most daily commuters in Mumbai—including those in higher-income groups—depend heavily on public transport. Despite the notorious traffic congestion on the city’s narrow roads, the efficiency and speed offered by Mumbai’s public transport system drive the preference.

“Delhi needs to incentivise its public transport system by making it cost-effective and faster than private transportation,” said Bhatt.

The higher costs are another factor that dissuades people from using buses in Delhi. Surveys conducted by CSE this year estimated that a bus ride is nearly 15 percent more expensive than a car ride and 150 percent costlier than a two-wheeler ride, making private transport more popular among the masses due to its affordability. These evaluations of the total journey costs consider travel time, fare price and fuel costs for public and private transport options.

The lower ridership on what was once the lifeline of the city’s public transportation, providing better access to most neighbourhoods, is only exacerbating the winter pollution problem.

“We all want clean air, but we also want to keep driving our SUV as the city has not provided an adequate number of buses,” said Sunita Narain, the director of CSE, during a press briefing.

Based on 2011 Census data, Delhi has only 45 buses per lakh population—far below the service benchmark of 60 buses per lakh set by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs.

In comparison, global cities such as London, Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Seoul have significantly higher bus coverage at 90, 80, 69 and 72 buses per lakh, respectively.

Despite a 26-year-old Supreme Court directive to expand the fleet to 10,000 buses, Delhi’s fleet remains at just 7,683, including 1,970 electric buses. This is inadequate for mass transit needs, adding to the city’s pollution woes.

Muskan Bhatia is an intern with ThePrint.

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)

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