Investor Appetite in European Restaurant M&A: Key Trends and Insights

The European restaurant industry has been evolving rapidly, especially in the wake of the significant challenges and opportunities created by the pandemic. In the last few years, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the sector have shifted dramatically as investors reassess strategies and priorities. These changes reflect a combination of market recovery post-COVID-19, emerging consumer behaviors, and a dynamic landscape of economic uncertainty.

As we dive into the factors shaping M&A activity across Europe, a few key themes stand out: industry consolidation, digital transformation, and the resilience of certain restaurant models, particularly those agile enough to pivot in times of crisis.

A Changing Landscape: M&A in European Restaurants: From 2018 through 2022, the European restaurant sector experienced significant changes in investment patterns. Initially marked by steady growth and robust investor interest, the market, like many others, faced an unprecedented slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as the economy and consumer activity began to recover, deal-making quickly followed, albeit with notable shifts in focus and strategy. In this period, over 150 transactions were recorded across Europe.

The most significant shift was the rise of industry consolidation, with 82 deals focusing on larger, more established restaurant groups acquiring smaller chains to expand their footprint. This marks a move away from private equity dominance—once a hallmark of restaurant M&A—toward operators seeking to fortify their positions within an increasingly competitive market. In contrast, there were 49 private equity transactions, signaling a more selective return of PE investors, particularly targeting scalable franchising models. Consolidation efforts have allowed larger players to diversify their portfolios while integrating innovative concepts and operational efficiencies. Notable deals include Ring International acquiring Burger King Scandinavia and HIG’s acquisition of Quick Restaurants in France.

Resilience in the Face of Adversity: The pandemic revealed stark differences in the resilience of restaurant brands. Fast casual and quick-service restaurants emerged as clear winners, demonstrating agility in adapting to the changing environment, primarily through delivery and takeout services. These segments not only weathered the storm but also saw significant investor interest due to their ability to pivot and thrive during economic downturns. As consumer preferences continue to evolve, investors are gravitating towards these more agile models. In 2021, QSR and fast casual segments accounted for over 60 percent of all M&A transactions. This explains why QSR and fast casual brands have attracted substantial M&A activity, especially in 2021 and 2022. The ability to quickly respond to external disruptions has proven to be a critical factor in securing investment and ensuring long-term success.

Rising Valuations and Investor Strategy: Interestingly, even amid the challenges of the pandemic, restaurant sector valuations have remained robust. Certain segments, particularly QSR, have seen their valuations rise due to sustained consumer demand and operational efficiency. For example, QSR deals made up 67 percent of all transactions in 2022 so far. This resilience, however, is tempered by a degree of investor caution. The focus has shifted towards long-term sustainability, with investors prioritizing brands that can demonstrate a clear pathway to profitability in a volatile market. Private equity, once a dominant force in restaurant M&A, has seen reduced activity compared to pre-pandemic levels, with only 6 deals in 2020. Despite this, we’re now witnessing a selective return of PE investors, particularly those targeting high-growth segments like franchising, which offers asset-light, scalable models that are better positioned to withstand market fluctuations.

The Role of Digital Transformation: One of the most significant developments shaping the future of restaurant M&A is the role of digital innovation. As consumers increasingly expect seamless, multi-channel dining experiences, restaurants that can successfully integrate in-store dining with digital ordering, delivery, and online engagement have a competitive edge. This omni-channel approach is no longer a luxury but a necessity for brands looking to thrive.

Investors have taken note. The appeal of companies with strong digital infrastructures and the ability to pivot to online ordering, delivery, or digital engagement strategies has skyrocketed. Brands that embrace technology to enhance customer experience, optimize operations, and drive growth are well-positioned for continued investor interest.

Challenges Ahead for European Restaurant M&A: Despite the promising opportunities within the sector, several challenges remain. Economic uncertainty, driven by inflation, rising energy costs, and geopolitical tensions, continues to influence investor decision-making. While this has not dampened overall M&A activity, it has certainly led to a more cautious approach, with investors focusing more on risk management and the sustainability of their acquisitions.

Labor shortages and rising wages have also posed significant challenges. For many operators, managing staffing efficiently and ensuring cost-effectiveness in a competitive labor market is critical. The ability to navigate these pressures will be key in determining the success of future acquisitions.

Additionally, regulatory complexities across different European markets add another layer of difficulty for cross-border deals. Investors must navigate a patchwork of varying labor laws, health and safety standards, and other regulatory requirements, which can significantly impact the feasibility and success of M&A transactions.

Looking Ahead: The Future of European Restaurant M&A: The future of European restaurant M&A is one of cautious optimism. Investors will continue to be drawn to resilient segments like QSR and fast casual, especially as these brands demonstrate their ability to meet evolving consumer demands. However, there will be a greater emphasis on digital capabilities, sustainability, and operational flexibility. Brands that successfully integrate these elements into their business models will be best positioned to attract investment and succeed in the long run. While private equity activity may remain subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels, we anticipate a gradual resurgence as market conditions improve and valuations become more attractive. Consolidation within the industry is likely to continue, with larger players seeking to build diverse, future-proof portfolios. For both investors and operators, staying ahead of these trends and being proactive in navigating the evolving landscape will be essential. The European restaurant market remains vibrant and full of potential for those ready to adapt and seize new opportunities.

Rebecca Viani is Partner/Head of International Development & Franchising Advisory for WhiteSpace Partners, a London-based firm, focused on the development and execution of market entry, international expansion, franchise development and recruitment, and acquisition strategies for restaurant brands and private equity groups expanding into Europe and the Middle East.

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