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In Türkiye, growth is forecast to decelerate to 2.6 percent in 2025, its slowest pace since 2020, before rebounding to 3.8 percent in 2026, the World Bank said in a new report.
The lagged effects of tight monetary policy are expected to weigh on growth this year before fading in 2026, the bank explained.
Rebalancing in growth is expected to continue in 2025, driven by a larger contribution from net exports as consumption and imports moderate, it added.
In Türkiye, growth softened to an estimated 3.2 percent in 2024, as private demand moderated amid a monetary policy tightening cycle that began in mid-2023, according to the bank.
In its projections released in June 2024, the World Bank estimated the 2025 and 2026 growth rates for the Turkish economy at 3.6 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.
“Meanwhile, inflation [year-on year average] is projected to decrease by 42 percentage points from 2024, reaching 15.9 percent in 2026,” the bank said.
Global growth should remain stable this year and next, but at recent historic lows, the bank said, expressing particular concern about growth in developing countries.
Growth should hit 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2026, in line with the level reached last year, the World Bank said, adding that inflation and interest rates should “decline gradually” over this period.
The bank expects growth to slow in East Asia and the Pacific, as well as in Europe and Central Asia, due to a combination of weak domestic demand in both China and Europe.
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