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HARARE – Zimbabwe’s economy could achieve a robust 6.2% growth rate in 2025, a significant rebound from the sluggish 2% growth recorded last year, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The new projection marks an improvement from the World Bank’s June forecast of 3.3% growth for 2024 and 3.6% for 2025. It aligns closely with the government’s own forecasts of 2% growth for 2024 and 6% for 2025.
The country had pinned its hopes on improved rainfall to drive a 12.5% expansion in agriculture, a critical sector for the economy, in 2025. This recovery was expected to help Zimbabwe rebound from last year’s devastating drought, the worst in over four decades. However, delayed rains may hinder agriculture’s recovery.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube says the government will reassess its growth forecast at the end of the farming season.
“We will be able to assess, four months from now, as to what the output looks like and then say whether we maintain the 6% or not,” Ncube stated.
The World Bank also provided a broader outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), forecasting regional growth of 4.2% in 2025–2026, supported by improved commodity prices. However, the report cautioned that commodity exporters like Zimbabwe face risks from potential economic slowdowns in China, a major buyer of minerals and metals.
“Growth in China could weaken more than expected, with adverse effects on the demand for minerals and metals,” the World Bank warned. “Lower prices for these commodities, which are the main exports of several SSA countries—many of them low-income—would hit these countries especially hard. Furthermore, slower growth in China could reduce Chinese investment in SSA.”
Zimbabwe’s projected growth for 2025 is notable compared to other countries in the region. South Africa, the largest economy in SSA, grew by just 0.8% last year and is expected to grow by 1.8% this year. Zambia is forecast to achieve 6.2% growth in 2025, while Tanzania’s economy, which grew by 5.4% last year, is projected to expand by 5.8% in 2025. Botswana is set for a strong recovery, with growth rising from 1% in 2024 to 5.3% this year. Mozambique will maintain steady growth of 4% this year.
As Zimbabwe looks to the future, the interplay between domestic agricultural output and global commodity trends will play a key role in determining whether the country achieves its ambitious economic targets.
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