Why Senegal is a crucial driver for Africa in 2025

In its latest report, the World Bank revealed that it expected growth of 9.7% for Senegal in 2025. This will be the highest growth rate on the continent and could be explained by the start of gas exploration in GTA in 2025, Le Soleil wrote.

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to consolidate to 4.1% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, against a backdrop of declining inflation and easing financial conditions. While regional growth was lower than expected in 2024, the forecasts were revised upwards for 2025 and 2026, respectively, by +0.2 and 0.3 percentage points. These averages, however, mask important disparities, the media recalled.

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The exploitation of the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim (Gta) gas field will also boost Mauritanian growth (7.8%), while Côte d’Ivoire (6.4%), Benin (6.4%), and Niger (8.5%) are also expected to record strong growth in the UEMOA zone. However, Nigeria and South Africa, economic giants, will lag despite the expected recovery in both countries, the report says. Excluding the two largest economies in sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth is expected to rise to 5.3% in 2025-2026. Economies exporting industrial products (excluding Sudan) are expected to recover as household consumption improves, leading to a rebound in the services sector.

Against a backdrop of declining inflation, the gradual reduction in key interest rates is expected to boost private consumption and investment in many sub-Saharan African economies over the forecast horizon, says the World Bank. The institution warns at the same time that high levels of debt and rising borrowing costs will limit fiscal room for maneuver, which will continue to weigh on public spending in all countries in the region.

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Sub-Saharan Africa’s per capita income is also expected to grow at an average of 1.7% per year in 2025-2026, below the average growth rate for emerging and developing economies (even excluding China and India). Angola, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, and Sudan are even expected to experience a decline in their per capita income over the projection period.

According to the World Bank, about 30% of the region’s economies will not have regained their pre-COVID-19 GDP per capita levels by 2026, which is a similar amount of years lost on the income and poverty reduction fronts. However, the African economy faces many risks.

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First, global growth may be weaker than expected in the context of increased uncertainty and adverse trade policy reorientations. Second, a more pronounced than expected economic slowdown in China, rising global geopolitical tensions worsening political instability, and escalating violent conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa. The report also suggests that higher-than-expected inflation could keep global interest rates high, exacerbating the difficulties faced by heavily indebted countries.

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