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India’s sugar production may drop 17% to 26.52 mt in 2024-25, says trade body AISTA
The All-India Sugar Trade Association has pegged this season’s (October-September) sugar production at 26.52 million tonnes (mt), down by 16.9 per cent from 31.9 mt estimated for the previous season. It has also lowered closing stocks estimate to 4.5 mt as of September 30, 2025. If the estimates turn true, this will be first time in many years that the carryover stocks from one season to another will be less than two months of domestic consumption.
The two months of requirement in October-November is pegged by industry at 4.8-5 mt due to festival demand.
The Crop Committee of the trade body held in-depth discussions as per feedback received from different sources and arrived at 26.52 mt as the net sucrose production in the current season, AISTA said in a statement. However, there may be a variation of 2 per cent (plus or minus) in the estimates, it said.
4 mt ethanol diversion
Further, AISTA said the net sugar production has also factored in the sucrose diversion for production of ethanol, which is estimated at about 4 mt. “The main reasons for decline in sugar production in Uttar Pradesh in the current season are the spread of red rot disease in the western region and floods in the eastern region, with cane having lower polarisation (POL) leading to low sugar recoveries,” AISTA Chairman Praful Vithalani said.
In Maharashtra, farmers have realised lower yield in sugarcane due to erratic rains and problem of flowering in the crop, he added.
As reported by businessline earlier, AISTA said factories in Maharashtra are likely to close early as there has been substantial increase in crushing capacities in many sugar factories in the State though the number of mills operating are lower than last year.
The trade body’s estimates also pegged sugar consumption at 29 mt, exports at 1 mt, carryover stock from 2023-24 season at 7.98 mt. The total availability for the domestic market minus exports has been projected at 33.5 mt.
AISTA said it had organised a day-long seminar on estimation of sugar production on January 25 in Mumbai, in which about 100 participants representing sugar mills, refineries, traders, international trade houses, researchers, analysts and surveyors were part of a survey.
According to National Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories (NFCSF), about 148.21 mt of sugarcane have been crushed between October 1, 2024 and January 15, 2025, which is lower by 8 per cent from 161.28 mt in the year-ago period. Total sugar produced during the same period in the current season stands at 13.06 mt, down 13.65 per cent from 15.12 mt a year ago.
As per the NFCSF’s latest crushing report as of January 15, 507 mills are crushing cane this year compared with 524 mills year-ago. Though as many as 122 mills are operational in Uttar Pradesh against 120 last year, the number of mills operational in Maharashtra this year is 196, compared with 206 a year ago. However, in Karnataka the number of mills operational this year is 77 against 74 last year. Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka are the top three sugar producers in the country having a combined share of about over 80 per cent in national production.
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Published on January 28, 2025
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