Prabowo’s diplomatic dreams must balance economic realities

As Prabowo Subianto prepares to take power next month in Indonesia, anticipation is rising that the soldier-turned-politician will stake out a more assertive role for the nation on the global stage.

While Prabowo’s foreign policy aspirations signal a potential dramatic transformation of Indonesia’s diplomacy, any strategic shift must be judiciously balanced with the country’s many pressing economic challenges at home.

Prioritizing foreign policies and initiatives that help address infrastructure deficits, create jobs, alleviate poverty and develop human capital will be critical to ensuring that a more activist diplomacy delivers tangible benefits to Indonesia’s people.

Prabowo’s foreign policy aspirations, hinted at by his diplomatic forays as defense minister, already mark a significant departure from outgoing President Joko Widodo, who generally took a cautious and pragmatic approach that emphasizes the maintenance of stable international relationships.

Many anticipate Prabowo will assume a more direct role in forging Indonesia’s global stance and positions. His initiatives to date, not least a proposed Ukraine peace plan calling for a demilitarized zone and UN referendum, show a desire to elevate Indonesia’s global standing.

His high-profile visits to France, Turkey and Russia, meanwhile, underscore his ambition to build ties with key global powers on all sides of deepening geopolitical divides and position Indonesia as a prominent, if not crucial, middle-ground player and even possible mediator.

This proactive approach arguably aligns with increased expectations for middle powers like Indonesia–the world’s fourth most populous nation and Southeast Asia’s largest economy–to play a larger role in global governance.

With the nation’s “non-aligned” history and recent decision against joining the BRICS grouping, increasingly seen as an anti-Western bloc led by China and Russia, it is well-positioned to stake out neutral ground on the global stage.  

Indeed, as the international landscape transitions toward a more multipolar order, Indonesia’s ability to bridge geopolitical divides will likely enhance its influence within key multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

At the same time, Prabowo will need to score economic wins through his globalist diplomacy. These should include the establishment of strategic international partnerships, targeted investments in infrastructure and education and a commitment to FDI-driven industrial diversification.

For instance, his diplomatic engagements with countries like France and Turkey could also serve to attract FDI in critical sectors such as manufacturing and renewable energy.

Strengthening bilateral relations with Russia and China, on the other hand, could enhance trade and infrastructure collaboration, equipping Indonesia with the technology and resources needed for economic modernization.

By aligning foreign policy with domestic imperatives, Prabowo is well-placed to diversify Indonesia’s economic partnerships and reduce dependence on any single global power. Such diversification would help insulate the country from external shocks and improve its negotiating position on the global stage.

Prabowo must thus ensure that his international engagements are pursued not solely for their diplomatic value but are also intrinsically linked to improving the livelihoods of ordinary Indonesians, allowing them to share in globalization’s gains.

While Prabowo’s foreign policy initiatives have generally garnered a positive reception from the Indonesian public, his administration must also temper the enthusiasm with realistic expectations.

To be sure, Indonesia’s ascent to a major player on the global stage will take time. The immediate focus of Prabowo’s diplomacy, thus, should remain on addressing domestic challenges and improving the economy.

This integrated strategy will not only augment Indonesia’s global power and influence but also safeguard its long-term economic prosperity, all the while building Prabowo’s stature as a respected global statesman.

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat. He received his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed here are his own.

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