Africa’s second-largest oil exporter may turn to the IMF amid oil price slump

The country, Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest crude exporter, has set its 2025 budget based on a $70-per-barrel oil price. However, Brent crude briefly dipped below $60, its lowest level in four years, after the U.S.

Angola isn’t alone in facing this risk. Nigeria, Africa’s fourth-largest economy and one of its top oil producers, also heavily depends on oil, which accounts for about 90% of its foreign exchange earnings. Nigeria’s $37 billion budget for 2025, built around an oil benchmark price of $75 per barrel, faces similar vulnerability if prices continue to slide.

For both countries, falling oil prices threaten the very backbone of national spending. In Angola’s case, Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa said a modest drop in prices could force a freeze on certain spending plans, while a sharper fall to $45 per barrel would likely require a supplementary budget, Reuters reported.

Revenue boosts underway to cushion the blow

She added that the government is working on measures to cushion the revenue impact, improve tax administration, and strengthen property tax enforcement.

The recent slide in oil prices and turbulence in fixed-income markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries, have hit many smaller, riskier emerging economies hard, including Angola, whose international bonds have sharply declined.

Earlier this month, Angola had to pay $200 million after JPMorgan issued a margin call on a $1 billion total return swap, a loan arranged by the bank in December and secured by the country’s dollar bonds.

The minister noted that the government was studying the option of requesting a financing programme from the IMF.

Asked about Angola’s oil-backed Chinese loans, Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa said the country still owes $8 billion but expects to repay it by 2028, earlier than the previously projected 2030–2031 timeline.

She added that Angola continues to secure new loans from China, primarily through the Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM), though these are concessional, not collateralized, and are designated for projects such as expanding rural internet access and improving education.

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