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Africa’s Trade Pact at Crossroads as Ministers Confront $411 Billion Infrastructure Gap

HE Semereta Sewasew, Minister of State for Finance for Economic Cooperation of Ethiopia, at the opening of the fifty-seventh session of the Economic Commission for Africa: Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.HE Semereta Sewasew, Minister of State for Finance for Economic Cooperation of Ethiopia, at the opening of the fifty-seventh session of the Economic Commission for Africa: Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.HE Semereta Sewasew, Minister of State for Finance for Economic Cooperation of Ethiopia, at the opening of the fifty-seventh session of the Economic Commission for Africa: Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.

African policymakers opened a critical dialogue this week to salvage progress on the continent’s flagship trade integration project, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), as infrastructure deficits and bureaucratic inertia threaten to derail its transformative potential.

During a three-day technical meeting ahead of next week’s ministerial summit, experts underscored the urgency of unlocking intra-African trade, which stagnates at just 14.4% of total commerce—a fraction of Europe’s 67% or Asia’s 58%.

Ethiopia’s State Minister of Finance, Semereta Sewasew, framed the AfCFTA as a linchpin for industrialization, urging member states to dismantle trade barriers that disproportionately hamper small businesses and women-led enterprises. “This isn’t about paperwork; it’s about survival,” she said, citing Ethiopia’s $4.5 billion Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway as a model for regional connectivity. Yet challenges loom: Antonio Pedro, the UN Economic Commission for Africa’s (ECA) deputy chief, revealed that realizing the pact’s full benefits requires $411 billion in transport infrastructure—a sum exceeding the GDP of Kenya and Ghana combined.

The AfCFTA, launched in 2021, aims to boost intra-African trade by 45% by 2045 through tariff reductions and harmonized policies. But progress remains uneven. While East Africa’s trade bloc has streamlined customs, West African nations still grapple with protectionist policies—Nigeria, for instance, maintains restrictions on 43% of tariff lines to shield local industries. Pedro stressed the need to pivot from raw material exports, noting Africa imports 90% of its fertilizers and 70% of refined petroleum despite abundant natural resources. “We must leverage local production or remain captive to global price shocks,” he argued.

Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam, a centerpiece of its energy diplomacy, exemplifies regional cooperation potential, but broader infrastructure gaps persist. The continent loses $5 billion annually to inefficient border logistics, per the African Development Bank, with truckers facing up to 50 checkpoints on major corridors.

The outgoing ministerial chair from Zimbabwe highlighted incremental gains, including ECA-backed initiatives in macroeconomic stability, but sidestepped questions on conflict-ridden states like Sudan or Mali. Civil society groups, absent from the closed-door talks, warn that excluding grassroots voices risks replicating past failures of top-down integration.

As ministers prepare to finalize recommendations, the stakes extend beyond economics. With Africa’s population set to double by 2050, the AfCFTA’s success hinges on converting youthful demographics into job creators rather than a destabilizing force. “Agenda 2063 cannot wait,” Sewasew said, referencing Africa’s long-term development blueprint. “Our actions today will determine whether this pact fuels prosperity or becomes another forgotten pledge.”

The ministerial summit, starting March 17, faces a litmus test: Can rhetoric align with reality, or will Africa’s trade ambitions remain sidelined by politics and underfunded priorities? For now, the continent’s integration dream hangs in the balance.

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