Agriculture, fisheries and forestry in Australia set to be worth record $101 billion

The value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry production in Australia is set to reach a record $101.6 billion in the 2025-26 financial year.

The forecast by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) is $7.3 billion more than the previous year.

The uptick comes as farmers endure horror drought conditions and volatile international trade markets.

Jared Greenville says high livestock prices are pushing up the value of the agricultural sector. (ABC Landline)

ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said the expected record was mainly driven by soaring livestock prices.

“We’ve seen high prices lately for both livestock and animal products like beef, lamb and milk,” Dr Greenville said.

Livestock up, crops down

The drought has tightened supply of livestock, leading to lamb price records being smashed at saleyards and strong demand for cattle.

The latest ABARES agriculture forecast shows livestock production is set to reach $41.6 billion this financial year.

That has bolstered the overall agricultural value to an expected record high of $94.7 billion.

But while livestock values are up during the drought, crop production and worth is down.

“Wheat production and value are set to fall as global prices and Australian yields decline slightly from last financial year,” Dr Greenville said.

Livestock production is forecast to be worth $41.6 billion this financial year. (ABC Rural: Annie Brown)

Crop turnaround

Despite the forecast reduction in yield, the country’s winter crop has been revived by winter rain.

ABARES predicts Australian crop production will be around 62 million tonnes — 12 per cent more than the forecast in June.

The revised figure includes a wheat crop of almost 34 million tonnes.

“Wheat production is still ticking along above the 10-year average,” Dr Greenville said.

“Barley and pulse production are also on the rise, which with stable canola production is forecast to see the third-largest winter crop on record.”

ABARES said cropping in southern New South Wales remained an area of concern because of a slow start to the winter cropping season and relatively low soil moisture.

Winter rain has brought relief for farmers and their winter crops. (ABC Rural: Justine Longmore)

Exports strong

The ABARES agricultural outlook shows exports are set to fall slightly this financial year.

But Dr Greenville said exports were still well above average, with a forecast of $74.6 billion.

“Beef and sheep meat exports are due to fall, but horticulture exports are forecast to increase and wheat exports will also rise as a result of high carryover from 2024-25,” he said.

“The global trading environment remains uncertain, but there is still strong international demand for Australian food and fibre from markets like China, Japan and the US.”

$100b agriculture goal ‘near reality’

In 2018 the National Farmers Federation (NFF) set a goal for the agriculture industry to be worth $100 billion by 2030.

With this year’s forecast for agriculture alone sitting at $94.7 billion, NFF president David Jochinke said it was now a “near reality”.

“It does demonstrate that we are doing a really good job in challenging scenarios,” he said.

Mr Jochinke says it’s great to see agriculture doing well despite many challenges. (Supplied: National Farmers Federation)

Mr Jochinke acknowledged that farmers are facing “headwinds” with costs of production, water policy, supply chain issues and infrastructure investments, as well as community concerns around renewables and land use changes.

“We have to get some of these pillars right around that value chain, the growth in sustainability [and] making sure that we’ve got innovation, people and capital to help drive our businesses,” he said.

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