AI Could Boost Global Trade 40% by 2040, WTO Reports

The World Trade Organization released a report on Wednesday highlighting artificial intelligence’s potential to transform global commerce significantly over the next two decades. According to the WTO’s findings, AI technologies could increase the value of international trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040.

This substantial growth projection comes with an important caveat, however. The report explicitly warns that without proper regulatory frameworks and policies in place, AI could worsen existing economic disparities between nations rather than reduce them.

Economic Impact Projections

The WTO’s analysis suggests AI will drive major changes across global supply chains and trading patterns. The projected 40% increase represents a massive shift in international commerce, potentially adding trillions of dollars to worldwide trade volumes.

This growth would likely stem from several factors, including:

The report indicates these benefits could materialize across both developed and developing economies, though not necessarily equally, without intentional policy interventions.

Concerns About Economic Divides

Despite the positive growth projections, the WTO expressed serious concerns about AI potentially widening economic gaps between nations. Countries with advanced technological infrastructure, skilled workforces, and strong digital economies may capture a disproportionate share of AI-driven trade benefits.

The report suggests that without coordinated global policies, developing nations could face significant challenges in accessing AI technologies and building the necessary digital infrastructure to compete effectively in an AI-transformed trading environment.

“The risk of economic divides deepening rather than narrowing is substantial,” the report states, highlighting how technological advantages could compound existing inequalities in global trade.

Policy Recommendations

To address these concerns, the WTO outlined several policy areas requiring attention from global leaders and trade officials. These include developing international standards for AI deployment in trade, creating capacity-building programs for developing nations, and establishing frameworks for data sharing that balance innovation with privacy and security concerns.

The organization emphasized that early policy intervention is critical to ensuring AI benefits are distributed more equitably across the global economy.

Proactive policies can help ensure AI becomes a force for inclusive growth rather than a driver of greater inequality,” the report notes.

The WTO also called for increased international cooperation on AI governance, suggesting that fragmented regulatory approaches could limit the technology’s positive impact on global trade.

As nations race to develop AI capabilities, the report serves as both a forecast of significant economic opportunity and a warning about potential pitfalls. The coming decades will likely see AI reshape international trade patterns in profound ways, with policy choices made today determining whether those changes reduce or reinforce existing economic divides.

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