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Axis Securities’ top picks for August: Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, SBI and more
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Bajaj Finance (Overweight) | With a current market price of ₹881 and a target price of ₹1,100, Bajaj Finance offers a 25% upside. The company’s margins are expected to improve by around 10 basis points in FY26 due to a projected decline in cost of funds (CoF). Management estimates the CoF will reduce to 7.6–7.65% in FY25 from 7.79% in Q1.
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State Bank of India (Overweight) | SBI, currently trading at ₹797 with a target price of ₹1,025, offers an upside of 29%. The bank’s credit growth in FY25 slightly trailed its 14–16% guidance due to large prepayments in the corporate segment, but retail lending remained strong. Management expects corporate loan growth to recover to 12–13% in FY26, supported by a healthy ₹3.4 lakh crore loan pipeline. Xpress Credit is also poised for a rebound following recent tax changes and customer additions.
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Varun Beverages (Equal Weight) | Varun Beverages, with a CMP of ₹523 and a target price of ₹590, presents a potential upside of 13%. The company saw a 3% YoY decline in consolidated sales in Q2CY25, primarily due to unseasonal rains that hurt India volumes, which dropped 7.1%. However, strong international performance, particularly a 16.1% volume growth in South Africa, provided some relief. Realisation per case rose 0.5%, aided by a 6.6% rise in international pricing. The company continues to focus on expanding its high-margin Sting energy drink, although the recently launched Sting Gold has seen a mixed response.
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HDFC Bank (Equal Weight) | HDFC Bank, currently priced at ₹2,018 with a target of ₹2,300, offers a 14% upside. With its loan-to-deposit ratio now below 100%, the bank is ready to return to growth. FY26 growth is expected to align with system-wide trends, with potential outperformance in FY27. Growth will be driven by retail segments, especially non-mortgage loans, and improved MSME demand. The corporate book will remain focused on high-rated borrowers despite pricing pressures.
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Bharti Airtel (Overweight) | Bharti Airtel trades at ₹1,914 and has a target price of ₹2,330, implying a 22% upside. It continues to lead the telecom industry in ARPU, which currently stands at ₹245 compared to Reliance Jio’s ₹195. Management is confident of achieving its ₹300 ARPU target through broader rural penetration, 2G to 4G/5G migration, and increased adoption of value-added services. Data usage remains robust at 25.1 GB per user per month.
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Shriram Finance (Equal Weight) | Shriram Finance, with a current price of ₹631 and a target of ₹750, offers a 19% upside. NIMs compressed by 14 bps in Q1FY26 due to excess liquidity, which the company plans to reduce by ₹10,000 crore over the next 4–5 months. Yield stability across product lines and a lower incremental CoF (8.3–8.4% versus a current CoF of 8.86%) should support NIM improvement.
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Avenue Supermarts (Equal Weight) | Avenue Supermarts, trading at ₹4,267 with a target price of ₹4,810, offers a 13% upside. The company has maintained a 17–20% CAGR in revenue, primarily driven by 14–15% growth in store count and retail space. It is investing in D-Mart Ready to boost operations, working capital, and e-commerce reach, which will help it tap into the growing online grocery segment. In Q1FY26, revenue rose ~18% YoY due to increased footfalls.
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Lupin (Overweight) | Lupin, currently priced at ₹1,929 with a target of ₹2,500, offers a 30% upside. In Q4FY25, the company delivered 14% YoY revenue growth, driven by strong performances in India (+19% YoY), the US (+7%), and EMEA (+30%). Other Developed Markets also grew 10.7%, though API sales dropped 10.3%. Gross margins improved 200 bps YoY, aided by a favourable mix, cost efficiencies, and reduced reliance on in-licensed products. EBITDA margins rose by 320 bps YoY. PAT jumped 39.5%, beating expectations.
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