Bajaj Finance Shares: Asset Stress Signals Keep Bulls Cautious, SEBI RAs Flag ₹970 As Key Level

Analysts say long-term fundamentals are intact, but warn of rising stress in MSME and unsecured portfolios.

Bajaj Finance shares fell nearly 5% on Friday, despite reporting a strong performance in its June quarter (Q1 FY26), driven by the expansion of its loan book and customer base. However, there are early signs of stress in select segments. 

And management commentary on asset quality concerns has sparked a selloff. Bajaj Finance cited rising stress in MSME and early delinquency buckets, though overall provisioning remains strong.

However, data on Stocktwits shows that retail sentiment turned ‘extremely bullish’ a day ago amid ‘very heavy’ message volumes. 

Bajaj Finance sentiment and message volume on July 25 as of 11:30 am IST. | source: Stocktwits

Q1 Earnings Snapshot

Total income rose 23.7% to ₹18,469 crore in Q1, while net interest income stood at ₹10,227 crore, up 22%, supported by strong loan growth across segments. Net profit rose 19% to ₹4,546 crore. Assets under management increased by 25% and surpassed ₹4.41 lakh crore. Sequentially, Urban B2C, rural lending, SME finance, commercial lending, and auto finance all posted healthy double-digit growth. 

The company disbursed 1.35 crore new loans during the quarter and added 47 lakh new customers. Its total customer base now stands at 8.34 crore. Asset quality remained stable. The gross NPA rate was reported at 0.85%, and net NPA stood at 0.34%. Provisions rose 26% to ₹2,120 crore.

India’s largest non-banking financial company retained its long-term guidance on all accounts. They expect AUM growth between 25–27%, and profit growth of 23–24%. 

Analyst Saurabh Sahu noted that while operating metrics remain strong and growth remains healthy, investors should closely monitor asset quality trends, particularly in the unsecured and MSME segments. Long-term fundamentals are intact, but any sharp uptick in delinquencies may limit near-term upside. He added that the stock trades at premium valuations.

Analyst Varunkumar Patel highlighted that Bajaj Finance has delivered yet another consistent quarter. Despite the rising interest rate environment and a slight increase in gross NPAs, the business remains well-capitalized and digitally agile. He believes that the EMI card platform, mobile app adoption, and co-branded credit card scale-up offer long-term optionality. Additionally, the upcoming festive season and deeper penetration in tier-2 and tier-3 areas should provide further growth triggers in the second half of the year. 

Technical Trends

On the technical front, analyst Financial Sarthis observed the stock has been consolidating in an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. It has now tested the ₹970 resistance multiple times, indicating seller exhaustion. They identified resistance at ₹970, and a close above this level with volume confirmation will indicate a breakout for Bajaj Finance. The stock could see a fresh rally toward ₹1,000 and higher in the short term.

Varunkumar Patel stated that the stock is currently trading within a consolidation range of ₹880 to ₹970. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 59, indicating neutral to mild bullish momentum. 

For traders, Patel advised buying near ₹910-20 with a stop-loss at ₹880. A breakout above ₹970 may lead to a move toward ₹1,050 in the short term.

And Financial Independence is neutral to positive on Bajaj Finance. While strong AUM growth and stable asset quality are viewed as positives, margin pressure and a slightly lower profit surprise capped the upside. They believe that its long-term story remains intact, with strong execution across all segments.

Bajaj Finance shares have gained 34% year-to-date (YTD).

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