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A stockpile of rice in storage. Mr Poonpong says rice is a high-potential product because Thailand already enjoys a substantial share in the US market, and it is likely to grow as the US imports fewer Chinese products.
Several Thai products, including pet food and rice, are poised to gain a larger market share in America amid escalating US-China trade tensions, according to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO).
Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, director-general of TPSO, said the office is monitoring the impact of US-China trade tensions on Thai agricultural goods.
The agency categorised these products into three groups: high-potential products, potential products, and items requiring trade diversion monitoring.
Mr Poonpong said high-potential products are those for which Thailand already enjoys a substantial share in the US market, and are likely to grow as substitutes to Chinese products. These include pet food, rice, prepared mackerel, flounder fillets, and prepared or preserved bamboo shoots.
Potential products refer to items where China dominates the market, but Thailand holds some market share and has a chance to increase its presence through improved production and marketing strategies, he said. These include various pasta products such as rice noodles and vermicelli, frozen squid, soy sauce, prepared or preserved fish such as horse mackerel, and frozen peas and beans.
Mr Poonpong said products requiring trade diversion monitoring consist of agricultural items produced by both China and Thailand, which Thailand may need to import due to domestic supply challenges.
While this could heighten competition, it may also allow Thai producers to take advantage of cheaper imported raw materials, he said. These include fresh or chilled garlic, prepared and preserved vegetables, dried chili, peppers, dried green tea, and dried onions or onion powder.
Maintaining Thailand’s US market share will be a challenge because the US plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on certain Thai goods of up to 36%, said Mr Poonpong.
Although this tariff was temporarily suspended for 90 days on April 9, Thailand must remain vigilant regarding competitiveness in other markets, he said.
If China shifts its goods to other markets due to US tariffs, competition could increase, said Mr Poonpong.
Moreover, unpredictable tariffs from the US, China, and other trading partners emphasise the need for monitoring of US trade policies, he said.
TPSO is committed to evaluating these developments and their potential effects on Thailand’s trade economy, said Mr Poonpong.
The Commerce Ministry has developed both short- and long-term strategies, including deterring illegal imports and enforcing strict regulations on agricultural imports to meet quality and safety standards.
The impact of international trade on domestic agriculture must be assessed, while ensuring local producers are protected, he said.
The ministry also tackles potential trade obstacles such as intellectual property issues and accelerating free trade agreement discussions.
The administration wants to broaden export markets and enhance Thailand’s competitive edge to reduce the risks associated with trade wars.
In 2024, Thailand’s agricultural exports to the US tallied US$4.76 billion, with the top 10 export products: pet food; rice; prepared tuna; fruit and vegetable juice; processed food; sauces and seasoning for making sauce; processed shrimp such as shrimp balls; frozen shrimp; fruit and processed nuts; and pineapple products.
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