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Bitcoin traded just above $121,000 on Wednesday, holding onto gains after a drop from a recent peak above $126,000. According to analyst Egrag Crypto, a small market move could trigger a much larger rally, building on a pattern he says has repeated across past cycles.
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Historic Channel Breakouts
Egrag’s view is based on a three-month look at price channels that, he argues, have preceded major rallies. Based on reports, similar channel breakouts were visible before the 2013 surge to about $1,163, the 2017 rise past $19,000, and the 2020–2021 rally that pushed prices above $69,000.
He says the current channel began forming in April 2022, and that a modest “blip” upward could push Bitcoin to $175,000. That target would require roughly a nearly 43% rise from $122,620. Short-term swings have ranged from $115,000 to $125,000 this week, while the present price sits near $121,900.
#BTC – $175K Is Just a Blip:
If we look at the historical behavior of #BTC on a 3-month time frame, we can see a clear channel formation. In the past three cycles, we’ve consistently seen a breakout at the end of these channels. While diminishing returns are evident, they are… pic.twitter.com/TabFoVlXBT
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) October 8, 2025
Targets And Risks To Watch
Egrag outlined a range of possible outcomes. He placed $175,000 as his primary target. He also suggested a midpoint near $250,000 and an upper scenario around $400,000. Those are ambitious numbers. They are presented as part of a longer-term view rather than promises of an immediate move.
The analyst compared his Bitcoin call to a past gold forecast—he set a $3,500 target for gold that later saw prices near $4,000—using that as a reference for his forecasting approach.
BTCUSD currently trading at $122,036. Chart: TradingView
At the same time, on-chain data offer a mixed picture. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that 97% of Bitcoin’s supply is now in profit following the recent rally.
That high level of realized profit suggests many holders sit above their purchase price. Some analysts interpret elevated profit as a sign that markets may pause so investors can take gains.
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Others point to crowded positions and rising leverage as signs that short-term volatility could increase. Reports have disclosed concern about what some call a “Suckers Rally,” a spike that tempts late buyers and is followed by a drop.
Market Behavior And Investor Moves
Accumulation has been visible in many wallets. Some investors reallocated gains rather than selling out entirely, which, according to reports, can indicate a controlled rotation of capital rather than a panic sell-off.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
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